Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models show an incoming Atlantic front increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm risk over Paris on August 15, driving a cooldown after midweek highs near 38°C. This shift in air mass and reduced insolation under the Saffir-Simpson-irrelevant but analogous synoptic pattern supports maximum temperatures clustering at 32–33°C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes at over 69% combined probability. Historical August baselines average 24–29°C, yet 2026’s early heat wave context underscores sensitivity to short-term model consensus on steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture. Updated runs and official briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities further.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Paris on August 15?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?
33°C 37%
32°C 32%
34°C 18%
35°C 10%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
3%
31°C
7%
32°C
32%
33°C
41%
34°C
18%
35°C
10%
36°C
2%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
33°C 37%
32°C 32%
34°C 18%
35°C 10%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
$11 Vol.
3%
31°C
$6 Vol.
7%
32°C
$90 Vol.
32%
33°C
$71 Vol.
41%
34°C
$0 Vol.
18%
35°C
$0 Vol.
10%
36°C
$15 Vol.
2%
37°C
$22 Vol.
2%
38°C
$22 Vol.
1%
39°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models show an incoming Atlantic front increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm risk over Paris on August 15, driving a cooldown after midweek highs near 38°C. This shift in air mass and reduced insolation under the Saffir-Simpson-irrelevant but analogous synoptic pattern supports maximum temperatures clustering at 32–33°C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes at over 69% combined probability. Historical August baselines average 24–29°C, yet 2026’s early heat wave context underscores sensitivity to short-term model consensus on steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture. Updated runs and official briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities further.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$277Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 15, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models show an incoming Atlantic front increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm risk over Paris on August 15, driving a cooldown after midweek highs near 38°C. This shift in air mass and reduced insolation under the Saffir-Simpson-irrelevant but analogous synoptic pattern supports maximum temperatures clustering at 32–33°C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes at over 69% combined probability. Historical August baselines average 24–29°C, yet 2026’s early heat wave context underscores sensitivity to short-term model consensus on steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture. Updated runs and official briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities further.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$277Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 15, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models show an incoming Atlantic front increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm risk over Paris on August 15, driving a cooldown after midweek highs near 38°C. This shift in air mass and reduced insolation under the Saffir-Simpson-irrelevant but analogous synoptic pattern supports maximum temperatures clustering at 32–33°C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes at over 69% combined probability. Historical August baselines average 24–29°C, yet 2026’s early heat wave context underscores sensitivity to short-term model consensus on steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture. Updated runs and official briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities further.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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