Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological services and international models indicate a high near 33–34°C for Chengdu on August 24, with scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover likely to limit peak heating through reduced solar insolation in the humid Sichuan basin. Trader sentiment remains dispersed across 34–37°C outcomes because of uncertainty in convective timing and intensity, which can suppress maxima by several degrees or allow brief clear spells to push readings higher. Key variables include evolving model runs for precipitation coverage and wind patterns that influence boundary-layer mixing ahead of the market’s resolution at local midnight. Updated guidance from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory will be the primary near-term catalyst.