Trump’s proposed tariff dividend, framed as $2,000 payments to low- and middle-income households funded by import duties, has seen no authorizing legislation advance through Congress despite repeated administration signals since late 2025. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling curtailed executive tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, prompting downward revisions to customs revenue projections and partial refunds to importers. Independent estimates place program costs at $280–600 billion annually, well above expected tariff receipts, while introduced measures such as the American Worker Rebate Act remain stalled in committee. With the December 31, 2026 resolution date approaching and no floor votes or agency implementation underway, traders assign the “No” outcome a 91.5% implied probability reflecting these procedural and fiscal constraints.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว9% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
9% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump’s proposed tariff dividend, framed as $2,000 payments to low- and middle-income households funded by import duties, has seen no authorizing legislation advance through Congress despite repeated administration signals since late 2025. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling curtailed executive tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, prompting downward revisions to customs revenue projections and partial refunds to importers. Independent estimates place program costs at $280–600 billion annually, well above expected tariff receipts, while introduced measures such as the American Worker Rebate Act remain stalled in committee. With the December 31, 2026 resolution date approaching and no floor votes or agency implementation underway, traders assign the “No” outcome a 91.5% implied probability reflecting these procedural and fiscal constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,033วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump’s proposed tariff dividend, framed as $2,000 payments to low- and middle-income households funded by import duties, has seen no authorizing legislation advance through Congress despite repeated administration signals since late 2025. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling curtailed executive tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, prompting downward revisions to customs revenue projections and partial refunds to importers. Independent estimates place program costs at $280–600 billion annually, well above expected tariff receipts, while introduced measures such as the American Worker Rebate Act remain stalled in committee. With the December 31, 2026 resolution date approaching and no floor votes or agency implementation underway, traders assign the “No” outcome a 91.5% implied probability reflecting these procedural and fiscal constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,033วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Trump’s proposed tariff dividend, framed as $2,000 payments to low- and middle-income households funded by import duties, has seen no authorizing legislation advance through Congress despite repeated administration signals since late 2025. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling curtailed executive tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, prompting downward revisions to customs revenue projections and partial refunds to importers. Independent estimates place program costs at $280–600 billion annually, well above expected tariff receipts, while introduced measures such as the American Worker Rebate Act remain stalled in committee. With the December 31, 2026 resolution date approaching and no floor votes or agency implementation underway, traders assign the “No” outcome a 91.5% implied probability reflecting these procedural and fiscal constraints.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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