A tropical wave east-southeast of Hawaii is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the Central Pacific, with NHC assessing environmental conditions as conducive for development into a tropical depression within several days. This system represents the primary near-term catalyst behind the 57.5% market-implied probability of formation by August 14, as traders weigh the wave’s west-northwestward track against only a 10% chance cited through the next 48 hours. No cyclones are active in either the Eastern or Central Pacific basins as of August 8, yet an ongoing El Niño pattern supports above-normal seasonal activity overall. The compressed six-day window to resolution heightens sensitivity to model updates and any rapid organization observed in forthcoming NHC outlooks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?
Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?
57% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 15, 2026
57% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 15, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.A tropical wave east-southeast of Hawaii is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the Central Pacific, with NHC assessing environmental conditions as conducive for development into a tropical depression within several days. This system represents the primary near-term catalyst behind the 57.5% market-implied probability of formation by August 14, as traders weigh the wave’s west-northwestward track against only a 10% chance cited through the next 48 hours. No cyclones are active in either the Eastern or Central Pacific basins as of August 8, yet an ongoing El Niño pattern supports above-normal seasonal activity overall. The compressed six-day window to resolution heightens sensitivity to model updates and any rapid organization observed in forthcoming NHC outlooks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$778วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.A tropical wave east-southeast of Hawaii is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the Central Pacific, with NHC assessing environmental conditions as conducive for development into a tropical depression within several days. This system represents the primary near-term catalyst behind the 57.5% market-implied probability of formation by August 14, as traders weigh the wave’s west-northwestward track against only a 10% chance cited through the next 48 hours. No cyclones are active in either the Eastern or Central Pacific basins as of August 8, yet an ongoing El Niño pattern supports above-normal seasonal activity overall. The compressed six-day window to resolution heightens sensitivity to model updates and any rapid organization observed in forthcoming NHC outlooks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$778วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...A tropical wave east-southeast of Hawaii is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the Central Pacific, with NHC assessing environmental conditions as conducive for development into a tropical depression within several days. This system represents the primary near-term catalyst behind the 57.5% market-implied probability of formation by August 14, as traders weigh the wave’s west-northwestward track against only a 10% chance cited through the next 48 hours. No cyclones are active in either the Eastern or Central Pacific basins as of August 8, yet an ongoing El Niño pattern supports above-normal seasonal activity overall. The compressed six-day window to resolution heightens sensitivity to model updates and any rapid organization observed in forthcoming NHC outlooks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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