Recent USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring shows ongoing deflationary tilt at Kīlauea’s summit following Episode 52, with approximately 1.3 microradians recorded over the past day and gas pistoning visible mainly at the north vent. This pattern, consistent with 2–3 day deflationary intervals before prior episodes, has shifted official tilt-based models from an August 8–12 window to August 10–13. The dominant Aug 11–12 market-implied probability reflects trader alignment with this narrowed, high-probability interval amid continued reinflation signals and vent activity, while residual uncertainty over deflation duration supports elevated odds for Aug 13 or later.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhen will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
When will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
Aug 11-12 58%
Aug 13 or later 30%
Aug 9-10 13%
Aug 8 or earlier 1.6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
2%
Aug 9-10
33%
Aug 11-12
58%
Aug 13 or later
30%
Aug 11-12 58%
Aug 13 or later 30%
Aug 9-10 13%
Aug 8 or earlier 1.6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
$284 ปริมาณ
2%
Aug 9-10
$208 ปริมาณ
33%
Aug 11-12
$87 ปริมาณ
58%
Aug 13 or later
$759 ปริมาณ
30%
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Recent USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring shows ongoing deflationary tilt at Kīlauea’s summit following Episode 52, with approximately 1.3 microradians recorded over the past day and gas pistoning visible mainly at the north vent. This pattern, consistent with 2–3 day deflationary intervals before prior episodes, has shifted official tilt-based models from an August 8–12 window to August 10–13. The dominant Aug 11–12 market-implied probability reflects trader alignment with this narrowed, high-probability interval amid continued reinflation signals and vent activity, while residual uncertainty over deflation duration supports elevated odds for Aug 13 or later.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,339วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Recent USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring shows ongoing deflationary tilt at Kīlauea’s summit following Episode 52, with approximately 1.3 microradians recorded over the past day and gas pistoning visible mainly at the north vent. This pattern, consistent with 2–3 day deflationary intervals before prior episodes, has shifted official tilt-based models from an August 8–12 window to August 10–13. The dominant Aug 11–12 market-implied probability reflects trader alignment with this narrowed, high-probability interval amid continued reinflation signals and vent activity, while residual uncertainty over deflation duration supports elevated odds for Aug 13 or later.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,339วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring shows ongoing deflationary tilt at Kīlauea’s summit following Episode 52, with approximately 1.3 microradians recorded over the past day and gas pistoning visible mainly at the north vent. This pattern, consistent with 2–3 day deflationary intervals before prior episodes, has shifted official tilt-based models from an August 8–12 window to August 10–13. The dominant Aug 11–12 market-implied probability reflects trader alignment with this narrowed, high-probability interval amid continued reinflation signals and vent activity, while residual uncertainty over deflation duration supports elevated odds for Aug 13 or later.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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