The strong trader consensus against a 9.0+ magnitude earthquake before 2027 stems primarily from the inherent rarity of such megathrust events on the moment magnitude scale, with global recurrence intervals often spanning decades and the most recent confirmed case occurring in 2011. No subduction zone activity monitored by the USGS has shown precursors or elevated strain consistent with an imminent great quake, and recent 2026 events have remained below magnitude 8.0. With only months remaining, historical frequency data and the absence of reliable short-term forecasting further reinforce low implied probability. A sudden full-margin rupture along zones like Cascadia or the Kuril Trench could theoretically alter outcomes, though current seismic patterns offer no indication of that shift.