Traders see closely matched probabilities around the historical August average of roughly 81 confirmed U.S. tornadoes because early-month conditions show typical late-summer suppression from a northward-shifted, less meridional jet stream that limits widespread shear and discrete supercell development. El Niño conditions strengthening across the Pacific in 2026 introduce additional uncertainty, as they can alter moisture transport and convective available potential energy patterns without clear consensus on net impacts for August. Key variables include upcoming Storm Prediction Center outlooks, any tropical moisture surges, and short-term model runs for wind shear and instability, which could push counts into the 60–79, 80–99, or 100–119 ranges depending on how frequently organized storms form.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
<40 26%
60-79 17%
40–59 16%
80-99 12%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
<40
15%
40–59
14%
60-79
24%
80-99
23%
100–119
25%
120–139
21%
140-169
15%
170–199
4%
200+
13%
<40 26%
60-79 17%
40–59 16%
80-99 12%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
<40
$60 ปริมาณ
15%
40–59
$85 ปริมาณ
14%
60-79
$60 ปริมาณ
24%
80-99
$52 ปริมาณ
23%
100–119
$52 ปริมาณ
25%
120–139
$52 ปริมาณ
21%
140-169
$52 ปริมาณ
15%
170–199
$14 ปริมาณ
4%
200+
$113 ปริมาณ
13%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Traders see closely matched probabilities around the historical August average of roughly 81 confirmed U.S. tornadoes because early-month conditions show typical late-summer suppression from a northward-shifted, less meridional jet stream that limits widespread shear and discrete supercell development. El Niño conditions strengthening across the Pacific in 2026 introduce additional uncertainty, as they can alter moisture transport and convective available potential energy patterns without clear consensus on net impacts for August. Key variables include upcoming Storm Prediction Center outlooks, any tropical moisture surges, and short-term model runs for wind shear and instability, which could push counts into the 60–79, 80–99, or 100–119 ranges depending on how frequently organized storms form.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$541วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Traders see closely matched probabilities around the historical August average of roughly 81 confirmed U.S. tornadoes because early-month conditions show typical late-summer suppression from a northward-shifted, less meridional jet stream that limits widespread shear and discrete supercell development. El Niño conditions strengthening across the Pacific in 2026 introduce additional uncertainty, as they can alter moisture transport and convective available potential energy patterns without clear consensus on net impacts for August. Key variables include upcoming Storm Prediction Center outlooks, any tropical moisture surges, and short-term model runs for wind shear and instability, which could push counts into the 60–79, 80–99, or 100–119 ranges depending on how frequently organized storms form.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$541วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see closely matched probabilities around the historical August average of roughly 81 confirmed U.S. tornadoes because early-month conditions show typical late-summer suppression from a northward-shifted, less meridional jet stream that limits widespread shear and discrete supercell development. El Niño conditions strengthening across the Pacific in 2026 introduce additional uncertainty, as they can alter moisture transport and convective available potential energy patterns without clear consensus on net impacts for August. Key variables include upcoming Storm Prediction Center outlooks, any tropical moisture surges, and short-term model runs for wind shear and instability, which could push counts into the 60–79, 80–99, or 100–119 ranges depending on how frequently organized storms form.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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