Persistent warm sea surface temperatures lingering after the 2023–2025 El Niño, alongside the underlying anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade, underpin the market’s clustering around 1.25–1.29 °C and >1.29 °C outcomes for August 2026. Latest NOAA and ECMWF model runs indicate limited cooling from a possible weak La Niña transition, while Arctic amplification and reduced aerosol forcing add upward pressure. Short-term variability in tropical convection and Indian Ocean dipole strength introduces genuine forecast spread, with resolution depending on final global mean estimates from agencies such as NASA GISS and Copernicus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 43%
1.25–1.29ºC 41%
1.20–1.24ºC 24%
1.15–1.19ºC 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC
8%
1.20–1.24ºC
24%
1.25–1.29ºC
46%
>1.29ºC
43%
>1.29ºC 43%
1.25–1.29ºC 41%
1.20–1.24ºC 24%
1.15–1.19ºC 8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$344 ปริมาณ
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$394 ปริมาณ
2%
1.15–1.19ºC
$333 ปริมาณ
8%
1.20–1.24ºC
$82 ปริมาณ
24%
1.25–1.29ºC
$201 ปริมาณ
46%
>1.29ºC
$255 ปริมาณ
43%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Persistent warm sea surface temperatures lingering after the 2023–2025 El Niño, alongside the underlying anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade, underpin the market’s clustering around 1.25–1.29 °C and >1.29 °C outcomes for August 2026. Latest NOAA and ECMWF model runs indicate limited cooling from a possible weak La Niña transition, while Arctic amplification and reduced aerosol forcing add upward pressure. Short-term variability in tropical convection and Indian Ocean dipole strength introduces genuine forecast spread, with resolution depending on final global mean estimates from agencies such as NASA GISS and Copernicus.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,609วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Persistent warm sea surface temperatures lingering after the 2023–2025 El Niño, alongside the underlying anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade, underpin the market’s clustering around 1.25–1.29 °C and >1.29 °C outcomes for August 2026. Latest NOAA and ECMWF model runs indicate limited cooling from a possible weak La Niña transition, while Arctic amplification and reduced aerosol forcing add upward pressure. Short-term variability in tropical convection and Indian Ocean dipole strength introduces genuine forecast spread, with resolution depending on final global mean estimates from agencies such as NASA GISS and Copernicus.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,609วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent warm sea surface temperatures lingering after the 2023–2025 El Niño, alongside the underlying anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade, underpin the market’s clustering around 1.25–1.29 °C and >1.29 °C outcomes for August 2026. Latest NOAA and ECMWF model runs indicate limited cooling from a possible weak La Niña transition, while Arctic amplification and reduced aerosol forcing add upward pressure. Short-term variability in tropical convection and Indian Ocean dipole strength introduces genuine forecast spread, with resolution depending on final global mean estimates from agencies such as NASA GISS and Copernicus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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