Cristobal leads market-implied odds for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane at 42% because it is the next name after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed earlier in the season without reaching hurricane intensity. NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal outlook of 7–13 named storms and only 2–6 hurricanes for the June–November period, citing persistent Saharan dust, elevated wind shear, and limited African easterly wave activity that have kept the basin quiet into early August. Dolly and Edouard follow at 29.5% and 19.5% as subsequent names that could develop if the first systems in the coming weeks fail to intensify amid the current hostile environment. Peak-season climatology around mid-August and the next National Hurricane Center forecast updates will determine whether early-list names capture the first Category 1+ system or later ones advance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Edouard 33%
Dolly 11%
Paulette 10%
Marco 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
37%
Dolly
27%
Edouard
19%
Fay
5%
Gonzalo
4%
Hanna
4%
Isaias
5%
Josephine
5%
Kyle
4%
Leah
3%
Marco
9%
Nana
8%
Omar
9%
Paulette
10%
Rene
5%
Sally
3%
Teddy
5%
Vicky
8%
Wilfred
4%
Other
4%
Edouard 33%
Dolly 11%
Paulette 10%
Marco 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
$162 ปริมาณ
37%
Dolly
$86 ปริมาณ
27%
Edouard
$222 ปริมาณ
19%
Fay
$72 ปริมาณ
5%
Gonzalo
$72 ปริมาณ
4%
Hanna
$73 ปริมาณ
4%
Isaias
$88 ปริมาณ
5%
Josephine
$55 ปริมาณ
5%
Kyle
$94 ปริมาณ
4%
Leah
$59 ปริมาณ
3%
Marco
$107 ปริมาณ
9%
Nana
$51 ปริมาณ
8%
Omar
$63 ปริมาณ
9%
Paulette
$67 ปริมาณ
10%
Rene
$63 ปริมาณ
5%
Sally
$131 ปริมาณ
3%
Teddy
$63 ปริมาณ
5%
Vicky
$90 ปริมาณ
8%
Wilfred
$118 ปริมาณ
4%
Other
$63 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. Cristobal leads market-implied odds for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane at 42% because it is the next name after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed earlier in the season without reaching hurricane intensity. NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal outlook of 7–13 named storms and only 2–6 hurricanes for the June–November period, citing persistent Saharan dust, elevated wind shear, and limited African easterly wave activity that have kept the basin quiet into early August. Dolly and Edouard follow at 29.5% and 19.5% as subsequent names that could develop if the first systems in the coming weeks fail to intensify amid the current hostile environment. Peak-season climatology around mid-August and the next National Hurricane Center forecast updates will determine whether early-list names capture the first Category 1+ system or later ones advance.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,801วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. Cristobal leads market-implied odds for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane at 42% because it is the next name after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed earlier in the season without reaching hurricane intensity. NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal outlook of 7–13 named storms and only 2–6 hurricanes for the June–November period, citing persistent Saharan dust, elevated wind shear, and limited African easterly wave activity that have kept the basin quiet into early August. Dolly and Edouard follow at 29.5% and 19.5% as subsequent names that could develop if the first systems in the coming weeks fail to intensify amid the current hostile environment. Peak-season climatology around mid-August and the next National Hurricane Center forecast updates will determine whether early-list names capture the first Category 1+ system or later ones advance.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,801วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Cristobal leads market-implied odds for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane at 42% because it is the next name after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed earlier in the season without reaching hurricane intensity. NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal outlook of 7–13 named storms and only 2–6 hurricanes for the June–November period, citing persistent Saharan dust, elevated wind shear, and limited African easterly wave activity that have kept the basin quiet into early August. Dolly and Edouard follow at 29.5% and 19.5% as subsequent names that could develop if the first systems in the coming weeks fail to intensify amid the current hostile environment. Peak-season climatology around mid-August and the next National Hurricane Center forecast updates will determine whether early-list names capture the first Category 1+ system or later ones advance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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