The TX-37 district, newly drawn in 2025 and centered in Democratic-leaning Austin, carries a strong partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly 30 points or more. Incumbent Greg Casar secured the Democratic nomination with ease in the March 2026 primary, while Republican nominee Lauren Peña emerged from a May runoff but faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid Democratic by independent forecasters. Trader consensus at 96.5% for the Democratic Party reflects the district's consistent electoral math, high Democratic turnout in urban Travis County areas, and absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals for Republicans. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Republican wave, a significant candidate-specific development such as a late scandal or health event, or unforeseen court rulings on the map, though the current margin leaves limited room for such shifts before November 3, 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วTX-37 House Election Winner
TX-37 House Election Winner
$34,834 ปริมาณ
$34,834 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
2%
$34,834 ปริมาณ
$34,834 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$18,300 ปริมาณ
97%
Republican Party
$16,534 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The TX-37 district, newly drawn in 2025 and centered in Democratic-leaning Austin, carries a strong partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly 30 points or more. Incumbent Greg Casar secured the Democratic nomination with ease in the March 2026 primary, while Republican nominee Lauren Peña emerged from a May runoff but faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid Democratic by independent forecasters. Trader consensus at 96.5% for the Democratic Party reflects the district's consistent electoral math, high Democratic turnout in urban Travis County areas, and absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals for Republicans. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Republican wave, a significant candidate-specific development such as a late scandal or health event, or unforeseen court rulings on the map, though the current margin leaves limited room for such shifts before November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$34,834วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The TX-37 district, newly drawn in 2025 and centered in Democratic-leaning Austin, carries a strong partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly 30 points or more. Incumbent Greg Casar secured the Democratic nomination with ease in the March 2026 primary, while Republican nominee Lauren Peña emerged from a May runoff but faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid Democratic by independent forecasters. Trader consensus at 96.5% for the Democratic Party reflects the district's consistent electoral math, high Democratic turnout in urban Travis County areas, and absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals for Republicans. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Republican wave, a significant candidate-specific development such as a late scandal or health event, or unforeseen court rulings on the map, though the current margin leaves limited room for such shifts before November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$34,834วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The TX-37 district, newly drawn in 2025 and centered in Democratic-leaning Austin, carries a strong partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly 30 points or more. Incumbent Greg Casar secured the Democratic nomination with ease in the March 2026 primary, while Republican nominee Lauren Peña emerged from a May runoff but faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid Democratic by independent forecasters. Trader consensus at 96.5% for the Democratic Party reflects the district's consistent electoral math, high Democratic turnout in urban Travis County areas, and absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals for Republicans. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Republican wave, a significant candidate-specific development such as a late scandal or health event, or unforeseen court rulings on the map, though the current margin leaves limited room for such shifts before November 3, 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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