A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models favoring a historic peak by late 2026, represents the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward below-normal September rainfall in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook assigns a modestly elevated probability of normal to below-normal totals, aligning with the market’s 30.5% implied probability on the <275 mm bin and the broad distribution across higher ranges. Key variables include tropical cyclone frequency and steering patterns, which can deliver 100+ mm events in days and push outcomes into the 400–550 mm+ bins, versus suppressed monsoon convection under persistent warm equatorial Pacific SSTs that favors the drier tail. Historical September variability remains high, with typhoon tracks and short-term model consensus on early-month troughs likely to dictate near-term shifts in the 275–375 mm cluster.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วPrecipitation in Hong Kong in September?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in September?
<275mm 31%
275-300mm 16%
300-325mm 12%
450-500mm 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
31%
275-300mm
16%
300-325mm
12%
325-350mm
9%
350-375mm
8%
375-400mm
7%
400-450mm
7%
450-500mm
11%
500-550mm
7%
550mm+
7%
<275mm 31%
275-300mm 16%
300-325mm 12%
450-500mm 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
$785 ปริมาณ
31%
275-300mm
$128 ปริมาณ
16%
300-325mm
$128 ปริมาณ
12%
325-350mm
$128 ปริมาณ
9%
350-375mm
$125 ปริมาณ
8%
375-400mm
$125 ปริมาณ
7%
400-450mm
$150 ปริมาณ
7%
450-500mm
$125 ปริมาณ
11%
500-550mm
$128 ปริมาณ
7%
550mm+
$150 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models favoring a historic peak by late 2026, represents the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward below-normal September rainfall in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook assigns a modestly elevated probability of normal to below-normal totals, aligning with the market’s 30.5% implied probability on the <275 mm bin and the broad distribution across higher ranges. Key variables include tropical cyclone frequency and steering patterns, which can deliver 100+ mm events in days and push outcomes into the 400–550 mm+ bins, versus suppressed monsoon convection under persistent warm equatorial Pacific SSTs that favors the drier tail. Historical September variability remains high, with typhoon tracks and short-term model consensus on early-month troughs likely to dictate near-term shifts in the 275–375 mm cluster.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,970วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models favoring a historic peak by late 2026, represents the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward below-normal September rainfall in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook assigns a modestly elevated probability of normal to below-normal totals, aligning with the market’s 30.5% implied probability on the <275 mm bin and the broad distribution across higher ranges. Key variables include tropical cyclone frequency and steering patterns, which can deliver 100+ mm events in days and push outcomes into the 400–550 mm+ bins, versus suppressed monsoon convection under persistent warm equatorial Pacific SSTs that favors the drier tail. Historical September variability remains high, with typhoon tracks and short-term model consensus on early-month troughs likely to dictate near-term shifts in the 275–375 mm cluster.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,970วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models favoring a historic peak by late 2026, represents the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward below-normal September rainfall in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook assigns a modestly elevated probability of normal to below-normal totals, aligning with the market’s 30.5% implied probability on the <275 mm bin and the broad distribution across higher ranges. Key variables include tropical cyclone frequency and steering patterns, which can deliver 100+ mm events in days and push outcomes into the 400–550 mm+ bins, versus suppressed monsoon convection under persistent warm equatorial Pacific SSTs that favors the drier tail. Historical September variability remains high, with typhoon tracks and short-term model consensus on early-month troughs likely to dictate near-term shifts in the 275–375 mm cluster.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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