Recent confirmation of just one neuroinvasive West Nile case in New York City as of mid-August, despite sharply elevated mosquito pool positives compared with 2025, anchors trader consensus near even odds between fewer than 20 and 20–34 total cases. Warmer temperatures have extended transmission seasons in recent years, correlating with the rise from a 16-case annual average (2012–2021) to 31 (2022–2025), while peak mosquito activity and human exposure typically continue through September. Citywide larval control, variable rainfall, and the concentration of severe outcomes among older adults introduce uncertainty about whether incidence will remain suppressed or align with the higher recent baseline before reporting closes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
Fewer than 20 43%
20 to 34 39%
35 to 49 16%
50 or more 7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
43%
20 to 34
39%
35 to 49
16%
50 or more
7%
Fewer than 20 43%
20 to 34 39%
35 to 49 16%
50 or more 7%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
$781 ปริมาณ
43%
20 to 34
$669 ปริมาณ
39%
35 to 49
$1,438 ปริมาณ
16%
50 or more
$262 ปริมาณ
7%
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Recent confirmation of just one neuroinvasive West Nile case in New York City as of mid-August, despite sharply elevated mosquito pool positives compared with 2025, anchors trader consensus near even odds between fewer than 20 and 20–34 total cases. Warmer temperatures have extended transmission seasons in recent years, correlating with the rise from a 16-case annual average (2012–2021) to 31 (2022–2025), while peak mosquito activity and human exposure typically continue through September. Citywide larval control, variable rainfall, and the concentration of severe outcomes among older adults introduce uncertainty about whether incidence will remain suppressed or align with the higher recent baseline before reporting closes.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,150วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.pageResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Recent confirmation of just one neuroinvasive West Nile case in New York City as of mid-August, despite sharply elevated mosquito pool positives compared with 2025, anchors trader consensus near even odds between fewer than 20 and 20–34 total cases. Warmer temperatures have extended transmission seasons in recent years, correlating with the rise from a 16-case annual average (2012–2021) to 31 (2022–2025), while peak mosquito activity and human exposure typically continue through September. Citywide larval control, variable rainfall, and the concentration of severe outcomes among older adults introduce uncertainty about whether incidence will remain suppressed or align with the higher recent baseline before reporting closes.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,150วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.pageResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent confirmation of just one neuroinvasive West Nile case in New York City as of mid-August, despite sharply elevated mosquito pool positives compared with 2025, anchors trader consensus near even odds between fewer than 20 and 20–34 total cases. Warmer temperatures have extended transmission seasons in recent years, correlating with the rise from a 16-case annual average (2012–2021) to 31 (2022–2025), while peak mosquito activity and human exposure typically continue through September. Citywide larval control, variable rainfall, and the concentration of severe outcomes among older adults introduce uncertainty about whether incidence will remain suppressed or align with the higher recent baseline before reporting closes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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