Recent energy price surges, especially diesel and crude, have lifted August PPI to 5.4% YoY—up 70 basis points from July and above the 5.3% consensus—primarily through final-demand goods, setting the tone for September expectations. Trader odds cluster tightly between 5.1% and 5.9%, reflecting uncertainty over whether oil above $90 per barrel and pipeline pressures will sustain the acceleration or ease amid mixed core readings. Services components and base effects from prior energy spikes add further dispersion, while the September 10 print and upcoming CPI release shape near-term revisions. Market-implied probabilities embed real capital at risk, pricing in these upstream cost dynamics ahead of the mid-October BLS report.