Large ongoing federal deficits, projected at roughly $1.9–2.1 trillion for fiscal year 2026, continue to drive net increases in total public debt, which stood near $40 trillion in mid-August 2026. Mandatory outlays for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, combined with elevated net interest payments, account for the bulk of spending growth, while revenues have not kept pace despite some tax collection gains. Congressional Budget Office baselines show debt held by the public rising from 101 percent of GDP in 2026 toward 120 percent by 2036 under current law, with no scheduled policy changes or economic assumptions that would produce a near-term peak before calendar 2027. Key near-term variables include final FY2026 appropriations outcomes, any reconciliation measures, and debt-limit actions ahead of the fiscal year-end on September 30.