Current model consensus from GFS and supporting guidance indicates a minimum near 8–10°C overnight into September 13, driven by light westerly flow, partly cloudy skies permitting moderate radiational cooling, and stable high pressure near 749–750 mmHg with dew points supporting limited further drop. Historical climatology places the average low at 8.4°C and the record at 1.5°C, providing context for tail-risk pricing. Trader emphasis on the 2°C-or-below bucket at 42.5% likely reflects uncertainty in overnight minimums from potential clearer skies or slight model cooling shifts ahead of final verification, while the clustered probabilities around 5–9°C align with the narrow forecast envelope and limited precipitation risk. New model runs or observational updates from the Hydrometeorological Center could refine these implied odds before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Moscow on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 13?
2°C or below 100%
4°C 62%
6°C 43%
7°C 40%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 13, 2026
2°C or below
100%
3°C
7%
4°C
62%
5°C
27%
6°C
43%
7°C
27%
8°C
27%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C or higher
<1%
2°C or below 100%
4°C 62%
6°C 43%
7°C 40%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 13, 2026
2°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
100%
3°C
$0 ปริมาณ
7%
4°C
$5 ปริมาณ
62%
5°C
$0 ปริมาณ
27%
6°C
$0 ปริมาณ
43%
7°C
$3 ปริมาณ
27%
8°C
$0 ปริมาณ
27%
9°C
$133 ปริมาณ
<1%
10°C
$0 ปริมาณ
<1%
11°C
$15 ปริมาณ
<1%
12°C or higher
$15 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from GFS and supporting guidance indicates a minimum near 8–10°C overnight into September 13, driven by light westerly flow, partly cloudy skies permitting moderate radiational cooling, and stable high pressure near 749–750 mmHg with dew points supporting limited further drop. Historical climatology places the average low at 8.4°C and the record at 1.5°C, providing context for tail-risk pricing. Trader emphasis on the 2°C-or-below bucket at 42.5% likely reflects uncertainty in overnight minimums from potential clearer skies or slight model cooling shifts ahead of final verification, while the clustered probabilities around 5–9°C align with the narrow forecast envelope and limited precipitation risk. New model runs or observational updates from the Hydrometeorological Center could refine these implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$171วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 13, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from GFS and supporting guidance indicates a minimum near 8–10°C overnight into September 13, driven by light westerly flow, partly cloudy skies permitting moderate radiational cooling, and stable high pressure near 749–750 mmHg with dew points supporting limited further drop. Historical climatology places the average low at 8.4°C and the record at 1.5°C, providing context for tail-risk pricing. Trader emphasis on the 2°C-or-below bucket at 42.5% likely reflects uncertainty in overnight minimums from potential clearer skies or slight model cooling shifts ahead of final verification, while the clustered probabilities around 5–9°C align with the narrow forecast envelope and limited precipitation risk. New model runs or observational updates from the Hydrometeorological Center could refine these implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$171วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 13, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Current model consensus from GFS and supporting guidance indicates a minimum near 8–10°C overnight into September 13, driven by light westerly flow, partly cloudy skies permitting moderate radiational cooling, and stable high pressure near 749–750 mmHg with dew points supporting limited further drop. Historical climatology places the average low at 8.4°C and the record at 1.5°C, providing context for tail-risk pricing. Trader emphasis on the 2°C-or-below bucket at 42.5% likely reflects uncertainty in overnight minimums from potential clearer skies or slight model cooling shifts ahead of final verification, while the clustered probabilities around 5–9°C align with the narrow forecast envelope and limited precipitation risk. New model runs or observational updates from the Hydrometeorological Center could refine these implied odds before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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