Traders assign the highest probability (64%) to fewer than five posts from the official @khamenei_ir account during August 21–28, reflecting its established pattern of infrequent activity focused on archival or occasional statements rather than daily commentary. Recent August 2026 posts from the account have consisted of historical quotes dated years earlier, consistent with low-volume output since the transition following Ali Khamenei’s death earlier in the year. Mojtaba Khamenei’s separate account has shown higher activity during periods of regional tension, but the market centers on the primary verified channel. No major scheduled events or diplomatic announcements are positioned to drive a surge in official output during the resolution window, supporting the wide gap between the leading outcome and mid-range bins priced in the mid-20s.