Ongoing Iran-related conflict and associated U.S. and Iranian blockades continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits averaging in the single digits amid 40x war-risk insurance premiums, major carrier rerouting, and widespread AIS-dark movements. This environment positions the 25-49 outcome as the market-implied consensus, reflecting trader expectations of modest stabilization or limited recovery during the week of August 24 rather than a full return toward the pre-crisis ~85 daily baseline. Recent data showing 3–7 transits per day and UKMTO reports of 90% declines reinforce the <25 range as a credible alternative, while elevated Brent crude levels near $86–87 and stalled diplomatic efforts limit upside to the 50–74 band. Key near-term catalysts include any further Iran-Oman corridor developments or enforcement shifts that could alter risk pricing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
25-49 79%
<25 18%
50-74 4%
100+ 1.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 30, 2026
<25
18%
25-49
79%
50-74
4%
75-99
1%
100+
1%
25-49 79%
<25 18%
50-74 4%
100+ 1.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 30, 2026
<25
$2,702 ปริมาณ
18%
25-49
$2,010 ปริมาณ
79%
50-74
$480 ปริมาณ
4%
75-99
$542 ปริมาณ
1%
100+
$591 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing Iran-related conflict and associated U.S. and Iranian blockades continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits averaging in the single digits amid 40x war-risk insurance premiums, major carrier rerouting, and widespread AIS-dark movements. This environment positions the 25-49 outcome as the market-implied consensus, reflecting trader expectations of modest stabilization or limited recovery during the week of August 24 rather than a full return toward the pre-crisis ~85 daily baseline. Recent data showing 3–7 transits per day and UKMTO reports of 90% declines reinforce the <25 range as a credible alternative, while elevated Brent crude levels near $86–87 and stalled diplomatic efforts limit upside to the 50–74 band. Key near-term catalysts include any further Iran-Oman corridor developments or enforcement shifts that could alter risk pricing.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,325วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing Iran-related conflict and associated U.S. and Iranian blockades continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits averaging in the single digits amid 40x war-risk insurance premiums, major carrier rerouting, and widespread AIS-dark movements. This environment positions the 25-49 outcome as the market-implied consensus, reflecting trader expectations of modest stabilization or limited recovery during the week of August 24 rather than a full return toward the pre-crisis ~85 daily baseline. Recent data showing 3–7 transits per day and UKMTO reports of 90% declines reinforce the <25 range as a credible alternative, while elevated Brent crude levels near $86–87 and stalled diplomatic efforts limit upside to the 50–74 band. Key near-term catalysts include any further Iran-Oman corridor developments or enforcement shifts that could alter risk pricing.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,325วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Iran-related conflict and associated U.S. and Iranian blockades continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits averaging in the single digits amid 40x war-risk insurance premiums, major carrier rerouting, and widespread AIS-dark movements. This environment positions the 25-49 outcome as the market-implied consensus, reflecting trader expectations of modest stabilization or limited recovery during the week of August 24 rather than a full return toward the pre-crisis ~85 daily baseline. Recent data showing 3–7 transits per day and UKMTO reports of 90% declines reinforce the <25 range as a credible alternative, while elevated Brent crude levels near $86–87 and stalled diplomatic efforts limit upside to the 50–74 band. Key near-term catalysts include any further Iran-Oman corridor developments or enforcement shifts that could alter risk pricing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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