Official Central Weather Administration forecasts position Taipei’s August 14 high near 35°C under continued influence of the Pacific subtropical high, which sustains clear to partly cloudy conditions and strong solar heating typical of late-summer climatology. Model guidance shows modest day-to-day variability, with the prior day’s 36°C reading and following day’s 34°C projection framing the 35–36°C band as the most probable range. Elevated humidity and any convective cloud development could cap afternoon peaks below model maxima, while drier air or delayed sea-breeze onset would support readings reaching 37°C. Traders’ heaviest positioning on 36°C and 35°C reflects these tight forecast spreads and the narrow historical margin between consecutive summer days. Updated CWA and ensemble runs issued closer to the date will provide the next key signals for resolution.