Official Central Weather Administration forecasts project a daytime high of 36°C for Taipei on August 13 under partly cloudy to showery conditions, consistent with late-summer patterns where urban heat islands and high humidity (often 70-80%) push maxima into the mid-30s. Recent observations, including a 37°C peak on August 5, support trader emphasis on 36°C (43% implied probability) and 37°C (31.5%), as steering patterns and weak pressure gradients limit stronger cooling or intensification. Ensemble guidance shows limited upside beyond 37°C given expected cloud cover and precipitation, while downside to 35°C or below remains possible if showers arrive earlier than modeled. Market sentiment reflects this narrow range anchored to authoritative short-range updates ahead of resolution.