China maintains persistent gray-zone pressure on Taiwan through routine PLA aircraft sorties, naval patrols, and expanded China Coast Guard operations east of the island, yet aerial incursions have declined notably in 2026 compared with prior years. Senior PLA purges have degraded command readiness for complex amphibious operations, while Beijing prioritizes diplomatic channels ahead of scheduled leader-level meetings. Taiwan has responded with accelerated combat-readiness drills and asymmetric capabilities modeled on recent conflicts, raising the prospective costs of any escalation. These factors, combined with the absence of sudden triggers or force buildups signaling imminent kinetic action, underpin trader consensus that a military clash remains unlikely before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใช่
7% โอกาส
$3,309,674 ปริมาณ
$3,309,674 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
ใช่
7% โอกาส
$3,309,674 ปริมาณ
$3,309,674 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.China maintains persistent gray-zone pressure on Taiwan through routine PLA aircraft sorties, naval patrols, and expanded China Coast Guard operations east of the island, yet aerial incursions have declined notably in 2026 compared with prior years. Senior PLA purges have degraded command readiness for complex amphibious operations, while Beijing prioritizes diplomatic channels ahead of scheduled leader-level meetings. Taiwan has responded with accelerated combat-readiness drills and asymmetric capabilities modeled on recent conflicts, raising the prospective costs of any escalation. These factors, combined with the absence of sudden triggers or force buildups signaling imminent kinetic action, underpin trader consensus that a military clash remains unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,309,674วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.China maintains persistent gray-zone pressure on Taiwan through routine PLA aircraft sorties, naval patrols, and expanded China Coast Guard operations east of the island, yet aerial incursions have declined notably in 2026 compared with prior years. Senior PLA purges have degraded command readiness for complex amphibious operations, while Beijing prioritizes diplomatic channels ahead of scheduled leader-level meetings. Taiwan has responded with accelerated combat-readiness drills and asymmetric capabilities modeled on recent conflicts, raising the prospective costs of any escalation. These factors, combined with the absence of sudden triggers or force buildups signaling imminent kinetic action, underpin trader consensus that a military clash remains unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,309,674วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...China maintains persistent gray-zone pressure on Taiwan through routine PLA aircraft sorties, naval patrols, and expanded China Coast Guard operations east of the island, yet aerial incursions have declined notably in 2026 compared with prior years. Senior PLA purges have degraded command readiness for complex amphibious operations, while Beijing prioritizes diplomatic channels ahead of scheduled leader-level meetings. Taiwan has responded with accelerated combat-readiness drills and asymmetric capabilities modeled on recent conflicts, raising the prospective costs of any escalation. These factors, combined with the absence of sudden triggers or force buildups signaling imminent kinetic action, underpin trader consensus that a military clash remains unlikely before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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