Recent July economic data showing weaker-than-expected industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment have driven expectations for China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth to moderate further from Q2’s 4.3% pace. Goldman Sachs estimates early-quarter expansion near 4%, with Macquarie and BNP Paribas placing July momentum around 4.1–4.2%, reflecting soft domestic demand amid the prolonged property downturn despite resilient exports. These developments have concentrated trader consensus on the 4.3–4.6% band as the most likely outcome, while lifting odds on modestly higher ranges if additional fiscal or monetary support materializes before quarter-end. Market-implied odds thus embed the ongoing tension between subdued internal activity and potential policy offsets.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วChina GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
4.3-4.6% 47%
4.6-4.9% 36%
4.0-4.3% 18.8%
4.9-5.2% 1.9%
$32,916 ปริมาณ
$32,916 ปริมาณ
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
19%
4.3-4.6%
47%
4.6-4.9%
36%
4.9-5.2%
2%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.3-4.6% 47%
4.6-4.9% 36%
4.0-4.3% 18.8%
4.9-5.2% 1.9%
$32,916 ปริมาณ
$32,916 ปริมาณ
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
$1,221 ปริมาณ
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$694 ปริมาณ
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$1,250 ปริมาณ
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$2,334 ปริมาณ
19%
4.3-4.6%
$12,516 ปริมาณ
47%
4.6-4.9%
$8,763 ปริมาณ
36%
4.9-5.2%
$3,349 ปริมาณ
2%
5.2-5.5%
$1,476 ปริมาณ
<1%
5.5%+
$1,314 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent July economic data showing weaker-than-expected industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment have driven expectations for China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth to moderate further from Q2’s 4.3% pace. Goldman Sachs estimates early-quarter expansion near 4%, with Macquarie and BNP Paribas placing July momentum around 4.1–4.2%, reflecting soft domestic demand amid the prolonged property downturn despite resilient exports. These developments have concentrated trader consensus on the 4.3–4.6% band as the most likely outcome, while lifting odds on modestly higher ranges if additional fiscal or monetary support materializes before quarter-end. Market-implied odds thus embed the ongoing tension between subdued internal activity and potential policy offsets.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$32,916วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent July economic data showing weaker-than-expected industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment have driven expectations for China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth to moderate further from Q2’s 4.3% pace. Goldman Sachs estimates early-quarter expansion near 4%, with Macquarie and BNP Paribas placing July momentum around 4.1–4.2%, reflecting soft domestic demand amid the prolonged property downturn despite resilient exports. These developments have concentrated trader consensus on the 4.3–4.6% band as the most likely outcome, while lifting odds on modestly higher ranges if additional fiscal or monetary support materializes before quarter-end. Market-implied odds thus embed the ongoing tension between subdued internal activity and potential policy offsets.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$32,916วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 20, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent July economic data showing weaker-than-expected industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment have driven expectations for China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth to moderate further from Q2’s 4.3% pace. Goldman Sachs estimates early-quarter expansion near 4%, with Macquarie and BNP Paribas placing July momentum around 4.1–4.2%, reflecting soft domestic demand amid the prolonged property downturn despite resilient exports. These developments have concentrated trader consensus on the 4.3–4.6% band as the most likely outcome, while lifting odds on modestly higher ranges if additional fiscal or monetary support materializes before quarter-end. Market-implied odds thus embed the ongoing tension between subdued internal activity and potential policy offsets.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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