Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups including the California Teachers Association and Medical Association, and billionaire-backed campaigns has driven the 70% implied probability against passage. The measure, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents worth over $1 billion to fund healthcare, qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after collecting sufficient signatures. However, opponents have funded two competing initiatives explicitly designed to nullify it under state rules for conflicting propositions, with over $90 million spent by figures such as Sergey Brin. Early polling showed narrow support that has faced sustained counter-messaging on resident migration and budget volatility risks. These factors reflect trader consensus on the challenges facing the initiative despite its qualification.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใช่
30% โอกาส
$3,723,862 ปริมาณ
$3,723,862 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
ใช่
30% โอกาส
$3,723,862 ปริมาณ
$3,723,862 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups including the California Teachers Association and Medical Association, and billionaire-backed campaigns has driven the 70% implied probability against passage. The measure, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents worth over $1 billion to fund healthcare, qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after collecting sufficient signatures. However, opponents have funded two competing initiatives explicitly designed to nullify it under state rules for conflicting propositions, with over $90 million spent by figures such as Sergey Brin. Early polling showed narrow support that has faced sustained counter-messaging on resident migration and budget volatility risks. These factors reflect trader consensus on the challenges facing the initiative despite its qualification.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,723,862วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups including the California Teachers Association and Medical Association, and billionaire-backed campaigns has driven the 70% implied probability against passage. The measure, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents worth over $1 billion to fund healthcare, qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after collecting sufficient signatures. However, opponents have funded two competing initiatives explicitly designed to nullify it under state rules for conflicting propositions, with over $90 million spent by figures such as Sergey Brin. Early polling showed narrow support that has faced sustained counter-messaging on resident migration and budget volatility risks. These factors reflect trader consensus on the challenges facing the initiative despite its qualification.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,723,862วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups including the California Teachers Association and Medical Association, and billionaire-backed campaigns has driven the 70% implied probability against passage. The measure, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents worth over $1 billion to fund healthcare, qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after collecting sufficient signatures. However, opponents have funded two competing initiatives explicitly designed to nullify it under state rules for conflicting propositions, with over $90 million spent by figures such as Sergey Brin. Early polling showed narrow support that has faced sustained counter-messaging on resident migration and budget volatility risks. These factors reflect trader consensus on the challenges facing the initiative despite its qualification.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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