**Traders assign an 8% chance that Michigan voters approve a constitutional convention on the November 3, 2026 ballot, reflecting the measure’s automatic placement every 16 years under Article XII, Section 3 of the state constitution.** Historical precedent strongly shapes this consensus: voters rejected the question by wide margins in 1978 (77% no), 1994 (72% no), and 2010 (67% no), with no state passing a comparable convention call since 2000. Organized opposition, including from the Michigan Education Association and allied groups concerned about potential changes to education funding, term limits, redistricting, and labor provisions, has already mobilized against Proposal 1. No recent polling or campaign developments have signaled a departure from these patterns, leaving the “no” outcome as the dominant market view ahead of the election.