Emmanuel Macron faces mounting pressure to hold a referendum by year-end amid strong public support for direct votes on issues like immigration and social policy, following the Constitutional Council's August 2026 rejection of an under-15 social media ban. Recent polls show roughly 80 percent of French voters favor expanded use of referendums to override parliamentary or judicial blocks in a fragmented National Assembly. Macron has repeatedly floated the option under Article 11 during his second term without proceeding, while municipal elections and the April 2027 presidential vote limit his remaining window. Traders see near-even odds because a sudden legislative impasse or ally endorsement could prompt action, yet Macron's consistent preference for parliamentary routes and the short timeline before the campaign season favor restraint.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว49% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
49% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Emmanuel Macron faces mounting pressure to hold a referendum by year-end amid strong public support for direct votes on issues like immigration and social policy, following the Constitutional Council's August 2026 rejection of an under-15 social media ban. Recent polls show roughly 80 percent of French voters favor expanded use of referendums to override parliamentary or judicial blocks in a fragmented National Assembly. Macron has repeatedly floated the option under Article 11 during his second term without proceeding, while municipal elections and the April 2027 presidential vote limit his remaining window. Traders see near-even odds because a sudden legislative impasse or ally endorsement could prompt action, yet Macron's consistent preference for parliamentary routes and the short timeline before the campaign season favor restraint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$50วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Emmanuel Macron faces mounting pressure to hold a referendum by year-end amid strong public support for direct votes on issues like immigration and social policy, following the Constitutional Council's August 2026 rejection of an under-15 social media ban. Recent polls show roughly 80 percent of French voters favor expanded use of referendums to override parliamentary or judicial blocks in a fragmented National Assembly. Macron has repeatedly floated the option under Article 11 during his second term without proceeding, while municipal elections and the April 2027 presidential vote limit his remaining window. Traders see near-even odds because a sudden legislative impasse or ally endorsement could prompt action, yet Macron's consistent preference for parliamentary routes and the short timeline before the campaign season favor restraint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$50วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Emmanuel Macron faces mounting pressure to hold a referendum by year-end amid strong public support for direct votes on issues like immigration and social policy, following the Constitutional Council's August 2026 rejection of an under-15 social media ban. Recent polls show roughly 80 percent of French voters favor expanded use of referendums to override parliamentary or judicial blocks in a fragmented National Assembly. Macron has repeatedly floated the option under Article 11 during his second term without proceeding, while municipal elections and the April 2027 presidential vote limit his remaining window. Traders see near-even odds because a sudden legislative impasse or ally endorsement could prompt action, yet Macron's consistent preference for parliamentary routes and the short timeline before the campaign season favor restraint.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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