Alibaba leads trader sentiment at 60.5% implied probability due to Qwen3.8-Max's strong August 2026 benchmark results in agentic and coding tasks, combined with over 900 million Hugging Face downloads and triple-digit AI revenue growth in its cloud segment. The company's scale advantages—extensive infrastructure investments, global data center expansion, and integration across enterprise MaaS offerings—position it ahead of pure-play labs. Moonshot follows at 28.8% on the back of Kimi K3's July release as the largest open-weight model (2.8T parameters) and competitive performance on SWE-Bench and agentic evaluations, plus its recent Hong Kong IPO filing. Other contenders like DeepSeek remain low-probability given narrower adoption despite efficient releases, while Tencent, Baidu, and ByteDance trail on relative model momentum and ecosystem traction heading into late September resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAlibaba 60%
Moonshot 28.7%
Z.ai 5%
Tencent 1.0%
$220,548 ปริมาณ
$220,548 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
Alibaba
60%
Moonshot
29%
Z.ai
5%
Tencent
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Baidu
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Alibaba 60%
Moonshot 28.7%
Z.ai 5%
Tencent 1.0%
$220,548 ปริมาณ
$220,548 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
Alibaba
$65,951 ปริมาณ
60%
Moonshot
$29,016 ปริมาณ
29%
Z.ai
$19,372 ปริมาณ
5%
Tencent
$18,983 ปริมาณ
1%
DeepSeek
$18,833 ปริมาณ
1%
Baidu
$16,182 ปริมาณ
<1%
ByteDance
$18,241 ปริมาณ
<1%
MiniMax
$12,330 ปริมาณ
<1%
Xiaomi
$14,176 ปริมาณ
<1%
Meituan
$3,773 ปริมาณ
<1%
StepFun
$3,688 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba leads trader sentiment at 60.5% implied probability due to Qwen3.8-Max's strong August 2026 benchmark results in agentic and coding tasks, combined with over 900 million Hugging Face downloads and triple-digit AI revenue growth in its cloud segment. The company's scale advantages—extensive infrastructure investments, global data center expansion, and integration across enterprise MaaS offerings—position it ahead of pure-play labs. Moonshot follows at 28.8% on the back of Kimi K3's July release as the largest open-weight model (2.8T parameters) and competitive performance on SWE-Bench and agentic evaluations, plus its recent Hong Kong IPO filing. Other contenders like DeepSeek remain low-probability given narrower adoption despite efficient releases, while Tencent, Baidu, and ByteDance trail on relative model momentum and ecosystem traction heading into late September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 20, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$220,548วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 20, 2026, 7:26 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba leads trader sentiment at 60.5% implied probability due to Qwen3.8-Max's strong August 2026 benchmark results in agentic and coding tasks, combined with over 900 million Hugging Face downloads and triple-digit AI revenue growth in its cloud segment. The company's scale advantages—extensive infrastructure investments, global data center expansion, and integration across enterprise MaaS offerings—position it ahead of pure-play labs. Moonshot follows at 28.8% on the back of Kimi K3's July release as the largest open-weight model (2.8T parameters) and competitive performance on SWE-Bench and agentic evaluations, plus its recent Hong Kong IPO filing. Other contenders like DeepSeek remain low-probability given narrower adoption despite efficient releases, while Tencent, Baidu, and ByteDance trail on relative model momentum and ecosystem traction heading into late September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$220,548วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 20, 2026, 7:26 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Alibaba leads trader sentiment at 60.5% implied probability due to Qwen3.8-Max's strong August 2026 benchmark results in agentic and coding tasks, combined with over 900 million Hugging Face downloads and triple-digit AI revenue growth in its cloud segment. The company's scale advantages—extensive infrastructure investments, global data center expansion, and integration across enterprise MaaS offerings—position it ahead of pure-play labs. Moonshot follows at 28.8% on the back of Kimi K3's July release as the largest open-weight model (2.8T parameters) and competitive performance on SWE-Bench and agentic evaluations, plus its recent Hong Kong IPO filing. Other contenders like DeepSeek remain low-probability given narrower adoption despite efficient releases, while Tencent, Baidu, and ByteDance trail on relative model momentum and ecosystem traction heading into late September resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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