Ongoing conflict in the Middle East, including Iranian and U.S. blockades plus mine risks, has suppressed Strait of Hormuz transits to sharply reduced levels since March 2026. Recent maritime data from Kpler, IMF PortWatch, and UKMTO show daily commodity vessel crossings averaging around 10-18 in August, with weekend figures of 4-16 and some days as low as 3, versus pre-conflict baselines near 85-95. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of normal rates, dark AIS transits dominate due to jamming and avoidance, and operators continue rerouting or idling vessels amid enforcement actions. These dynamics underpin the overwhelming 97.3% market-implied odds for a 0-20 daily average by month-end. A rapid de-escalation via new Iran-Oman corridor agreements or verified mine clearance could lift volumes, though near-term data indicate such shifts would require sustained security improvements unlikely before August 31.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
0-20 97.3%
20-40 1.9%
40-60 <1%
60-80 <1%
$94,859 ปริมาณ
$94,859 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
0-20
97%
20-40
2%
40-60
1%
60-80
<1%
80+
<1%
0-20 97.3%
20-40 1.9%
40-60 <1%
60-80 <1%
$94,859 ปริมาณ
$94,859 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
0-20
$50,833 ปริมาณ
97%
20-40
$14,164 ปริมาณ
2%
40-60
$11,545 ปริมาณ
1%
60-80
$10,294 ปริมาณ
<1%
80+
$8,023 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing conflict in the Middle East, including Iranian and U.S. blockades plus mine risks, has suppressed Strait of Hormuz transits to sharply reduced levels since March 2026. Recent maritime data from Kpler, IMF PortWatch, and UKMTO show daily commodity vessel crossings averaging around 10-18 in August, with weekend figures of 4-16 and some days as low as 3, versus pre-conflict baselines near 85-95. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of normal rates, dark AIS transits dominate due to jamming and avoidance, and operators continue rerouting or idling vessels amid enforcement actions. These dynamics underpin the overwhelming 97.3% market-implied odds for a 0-20 daily average by month-end. A rapid de-escalation via new Iran-Oman corridor agreements or verified mine clearance could lift volumes, though near-term data indicate such shifts would require sustained security improvements unlikely before August 31.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$94,859วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing conflict in the Middle East, including Iranian and U.S. blockades plus mine risks, has suppressed Strait of Hormuz transits to sharply reduced levels since March 2026. Recent maritime data from Kpler, IMF PortWatch, and UKMTO show daily commodity vessel crossings averaging around 10-18 in August, with weekend figures of 4-16 and some days as low as 3, versus pre-conflict baselines near 85-95. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of normal rates, dark AIS transits dominate due to jamming and avoidance, and operators continue rerouting or idling vessels amid enforcement actions. These dynamics underpin the overwhelming 97.3% market-implied odds for a 0-20 daily average by month-end. A rapid de-escalation via new Iran-Oman corridor agreements or verified mine clearance could lift volumes, though near-term data indicate such shifts would require sustained security improvements unlikely before August 31.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$94,859วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing conflict in the Middle East, including Iranian and U.S. blockades plus mine risks, has suppressed Strait of Hormuz transits to sharply reduced levels since March 2026. Recent maritime data from Kpler, IMF PortWatch, and UKMTO show daily commodity vessel crossings averaging around 10-18 in August, with weekend figures of 4-16 and some days as low as 3, versus pre-conflict baselines near 85-95. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of normal rates, dark AIS transits dominate due to jamming and avoidance, and operators continue rerouting or idling vessels amid enforcement actions. These dynamics underpin the overwhelming 97.3% market-implied odds for a 0-20 daily average by month-end. A rapid de-escalation via new Iran-Oman corridor agreements or verified mine clearance could lift volumes, though near-term data indicate such shifts would require sustained security improvements unlikely before August 31.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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