NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026, with all tracked close approaches safely missing Earth by thousands of kilometers. Historical impact rates indicate objects releasing roughly 5 kilotons of energy occur sporadically, yet confirmed events remain infrequent amid improved global detection networks. Elevated fireball reports through Q1 2026 have slightly raised trader awareness of near-Earth meteoroids, but most represent small, non-impacting fragments. With over four months remaining, the absence of any identified hazardous body and the statistical rarity of detectable 5 kt airbursts or ground strikes underpin the 70% market-implied probability for no qualifying event by year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
30% โอกาส
$312,008 ปริมาณ
$312,008 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
30% โอกาส
$312,008 ปริมาณ
$312,008 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026, with all tracked close approaches safely missing Earth by thousands of kilometers. Historical impact rates indicate objects releasing roughly 5 kilotons of energy occur sporadically, yet confirmed events remain infrequent amid improved global detection networks. Elevated fireball reports through Q1 2026 have slightly raised trader awareness of near-Earth meteoroids, but most represent small, non-impacting fragments. With over four months remaining, the absence of any identified hazardous body and the statistical rarity of detectable 5 kt airbursts or ground strikes underpin the 70% market-implied probability for no qualifying event by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$312,008วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026, with all tracked close approaches safely missing Earth by thousands of kilometers. Historical impact rates indicate objects releasing roughly 5 kilotons of energy occur sporadically, yet confirmed events remain infrequent amid improved global detection networks. Elevated fireball reports through Q1 2026 have slightly raised trader awareness of near-Earth meteoroids, but most represent small, non-impacting fragments. With over four months remaining, the absence of any identified hazardous body and the statistical rarity of detectable 5 kt airbursts or ground strikes underpin the 70% market-implied probability for no qualifying event by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$312,008วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026, with all tracked close approaches safely missing Earth by thousands of kilometers. Historical impact rates indicate objects releasing roughly 5 kilotons of energy occur sporadically, yet confirmed events remain infrequent amid improved global detection networks. Elevated fireball reports through Q1 2026 have slightly raised trader awareness of near-Earth meteoroids, but most represent small, non-impacting fragments. With over four months remaining, the absence of any identified hazardous body and the statistical rarity of detectable 5 kt airbursts or ground strikes underpin the 70% market-implied probability for no qualifying event by year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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