Persistent El Niño conditions and associated high wind shear, stable air, and drier mid-levels continue suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis, with only two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) and no hurricanes through mid-August. NOAA’s August 6 update maintained a below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes for the full season, consistent with the current lull and recent Tropical Storm Cristobal’s limited development in the far north. These factors create tight probabilities across late-August windows, where any near-term wave or Gulf disturbance could intensify to hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale versus continued suppression delaying the season’s first hurricane past August 31.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhen will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
August 27 to August 31, 2026 35%
August 13 to August 16, 2026 0
August 17 to August 21, 2026 0
August 22 to August 26, 2026 0
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 17, 2026
August 13 to August 16, 2026
34%
August 17 to August 21, 2026
34%
August 22 to August 26, 2026
53%
August 27 to August 31, 2026
35%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026
40%
August 27 to August 31, 2026 35%
August 13 to August 16, 2026 0
August 17 to August 21, 2026 0
August 22 to August 26, 2026 0
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 17, 2026
August 13 to August 16, 2026
$45 ปริมาณ
34%
August 17 to August 21, 2026
$70 ปริมาณ
34%
August 22 to August 26, 2026
$45 ปริมาณ
53%
August 27 to August 31, 2026
$40 ปริมาณ
35%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026
$50 ปริมาณ
40%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Persistent El Niño conditions and associated high wind shear, stable air, and drier mid-levels continue suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis, with only two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) and no hurricanes through mid-August. NOAA’s August 6 update maintained a below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes for the full season, consistent with the current lull and recent Tropical Storm Cristobal’s limited development in the far north. These factors create tight probabilities across late-August windows, where any near-term wave or Gulf disturbance could intensify to hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale versus continued suppression delaying the season’s first hurricane past August 31.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$250วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Persistent El Niño conditions and associated high wind shear, stable air, and drier mid-levels continue suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis, with only two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) and no hurricanes through mid-August. NOAA’s August 6 update maintained a below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes for the full season, consistent with the current lull and recent Tropical Storm Cristobal’s limited development in the far north. These factors create tight probabilities across late-August windows, where any near-term wave or Gulf disturbance could intensify to hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale versus continued suppression delaying the season’s first hurricane past August 31.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$250วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent El Niño conditions and associated high wind shear, stable air, and drier mid-levels continue suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis, with only two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) and no hurricanes through mid-August. NOAA’s August 6 update maintained a below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes for the full season, consistent with the current lull and recent Tropical Storm Cristobal’s limited development in the far north. These factors create tight probabilities across late-August windows, where any near-term wave or Gulf disturbance could intensify to hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale versus continued suppression delaying the season’s first hurricane past August 31.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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