West Virginia’s 2nd congressional district carries a strong Republican partisan lean of roughly R+20, with incumbent Riley Moore facing Democrat Ace Parsi and minor independent candidates in the November 3 general election. Moore’s unopposed primary win and the district’s consistent voting patterns have anchored trader expectations around a Republican victory, as shown by the low implied probability on a Democratic win. The spread across Republican margin buckets reflects uncertainty over the precise size of the win, driven by limited post-primary developments, typical midterm turnout patterns in the northern Panhandle and eastern counties, and the absence of major local or national shifts that would dramatically expand or shrink the margin. Scheduled campaign activity through the extended pre-election recess and any late national polling movements remain the main variables that could widen or narrow the final result.