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icon for Будет ли сформирован тропический циклон в бассейнах Тихого или Центрального Тихого океана к 14 августа?

Будет ли сформирован тропический циклон в бассейнах Тихого или Центрального Тихого океана к 14 августа?

icon for Будет ли сформирован тропический циклон в бассейнах Тихого или Центрального Тихого океана к 14 августа?

Будет ли сформирован тропический циклон в бассейнах Тихого или Центрального Тихого океана к 14 августа?

75% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
75% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins. If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.Current NHC outlooks show no active tropical cyclones in the Eastern or Central Pacific as of August 8, with formation probabilities for monitored disturbances remaining low at 10-20% over the next seven days amid limited immediate organization. Trader consensus at 72.5% for a tropical cyclone by August 14 draws primarily from the climatological peak of the Pacific season, when warm sea surface temperatures and reduced wind shear often support rapid cyclogenesis from tropical waves during this narrow window. Recent dissipation of Hurricane Genevieve on August 2 leaves the basin quiet but primed for new development, consistent with above-normal seasonal forecasts from NOAA for the Central Pacific. Updated model runs and daily NHC discussions through mid-August will clarify steering patterns and intensification potential before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.

If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
Объем
$798
Дата окончания
15 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ET

Источник определения исхода

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins. If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins. If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.Current NHC outlooks show no active tropical cyclones in the Eastern or Central Pacific as of August 8, with formation probabilities for monitored disturbances remaining low at 10-20% over the next seven days amid limited immediate organization. Trader consensus at 72.5% for a tropical cyclone by August 14 draws primarily from the climatological peak of the Pacific season, when warm sea surface temperatures and reduced wind shear often support rapid cyclogenesis from tropical waves during this narrow window. Recent dissipation of Hurricane Genevieve on August 2 leaves the basin quiet but primed for new development, consistent with above-normal seasonal forecasts from NOAA for the Central Pacific. Updated model runs and daily NHC discussions through mid-August will clarify steering patterns and intensification potential before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.

If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
Объем
$798
Дата окончания
15 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ET

Источник определения исхода

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins. If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.

Связанные

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Начнётся ли 53-й эпизод Килауэа 11–12 августа?

54%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Будет ли сформирован тропический циклон в бассейнах Тихого или Центрального Тихого океана к 14 августа?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 76% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 76¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 76%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Будет ли сформирован тропический циклон в бассейнах Тихого или Центрального Тихого океана к 14 августа?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Aug 7, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Будет ли сформирован тропический циклон в бассейнах Тихого или Центрального Тихого океана к 14 августа?», просто выбери, считаешь ли ты, что ответ — «Да» или «Нет». Каждая сторона имеет текущую цену, отражающую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты купишь акции «Да» и исход разрешится как «Да», каждая акция принесёт $1. Если исход — «Нет», твои акции «Да» принесут $0. Ты также можешь продать свои акции в любой момент до разрешения, чтобы зафиксировать прибыль или ограничить убыток.

Текущая вероятность для «Будет ли сформирован тропический циклон в бассейнах Тихого или Центрального Тихого океана к 14 августа?» составляет 76% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 76%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

Правила разрешения «Будет ли сформирован тропический циклон в бассейнах Тихого или Центрального Тихого океана к 14 августа?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.