Recent forecasts from major models position Warsaw's August 10 high near 30–31°C, aligning with the market's leading outcomes and reflecting stable model consensus in the final 48-hour window. Mid-August climatology features peak seasonal insolation and typical highs of 24–26°C, but current synoptic patterns favor warmer advection with limited cloud cover and light winds that enhance daytime heating. Official guidance from sources such as the UK Met Office and BBC indicates a maximum around 30°C, while extended ensembles allow for minor upward revisions to 31–32°C if subsidence strengthens. Traders appear to weight this narrow range most heavily given the proximity to resolution and low likelihood of significant forecast shifts or extremes above 33°C.