Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants currently top multiple independent leaderboards, including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMSpeed composites, after their early September 2026 releases that delivered gains in agentic coding, Terminal-Bench, and reasoning benchmarks. This positions the company with the strongest market-implied odds for holding the #1 Chatbot Arena rank by year-end. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 has narrowed gaps in select reasoning and computer-use tasks but trails overall, while Google’s rapid Gemini 3.8 Flash cadence and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 updates sustain pressure in multimodal and value tiers. Frequent frontier releases every four to eight weeks, benchmark volatility, and lmarena.ai resolution criteria create ongoing uncertainty for traders monitoring the final months.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакие компании будут иметь модель искусственного интеллекта №1 к 31 декабря?
Какие компании будут иметь модель искусственного интеллекта №1 к 31 декабря?
$142,675 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
OpenAI
31%
23%
xAI
13%
Alibaba
12%
Z.ai
11%
Meta
11%
Moonshot
9%
ByteDance
8%
Baidu
7%
DeepSeek
6%
Microsoft
5%
Amazon
3%
Mistral
3%
Meituan
3%
$142,675 Объем
OpenAI
$27,617 Объем
31%
$18,564 Объем
23%
xAI
$9,098 Объем
13%
Alibaba
$3,589 Объем
12%
Z.ai
$5,381 Объем
11%
Meta
$15,798 Объем
11%
Moonshot
$9,997 Объем
9%
ByteDance
$2,936 Объем
8%
Baidu
$1,981 Объем
7%
DeepSeek
$23,571 Объем
6%
Microsoft
$5,191 Объем
5%
Amazon
$5,156 Объем
3%
Mistral
$10,316 Объем
3%
Meituan
$3,480 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants currently top multiple independent leaderboards, including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMSpeed composites, after their early September 2026 releases that delivered gains in agentic coding, Terminal-Bench, and reasoning benchmarks. This positions the company with the strongest market-implied odds for holding the #1 Chatbot Arena rank by year-end. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 has narrowed gaps in select reasoning and computer-use tasks but trails overall, while Google’s rapid Gemini 3.8 Flash cadence and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 updates sustain pressure in multimodal and value tiers. Frequent frontier releases every four to eight weeks, benchmark volatility, and lmarena.ai resolution criteria create ongoing uncertainty for traders monitoring the final months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Объем
$142,675Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants currently top multiple independent leaderboards, including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMSpeed composites, after their early September 2026 releases that delivered gains in agentic coding, Terminal-Bench, and reasoning benchmarks. This positions the company with the strongest market-implied odds for holding the #1 Chatbot Arena rank by year-end. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 has narrowed gaps in select reasoning and computer-use tasks but trails overall, while Google’s rapid Gemini 3.8 Flash cadence and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 updates sustain pressure in multimodal and value tiers. Frequent frontier releases every four to eight weeks, benchmark volatility, and lmarena.ai resolution criteria create ongoing uncertainty for traders monitoring the final months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$142,675Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants currently top multiple independent leaderboards, including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMSpeed composites, after their early September 2026 releases that delivered gains in agentic coding, Terminal-Bench, and reasoning benchmarks. This positions the company with the strongest market-implied odds for holding the #1 Chatbot Arena rank by year-end. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 has narrowed gaps in select reasoning and computer-use tasks but trails overall, while Google’s rapid Gemini 3.8 Flash cadence and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 updates sustain pressure in multimodal and value tiers. Frequent frontier releases every four to eight weeks, benchmark volatility, and lmarena.ai resolution criteria create ongoing uncertainty for traders monitoring the final months.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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