Trader consensus assigns an 83.5% implied probability that no AI reaches 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026, reflecting the current frontier gap. As of early September, leading models sit in the 1490–1507 range, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants holding the top spots at roughly 1506. Incremental weekly gains remain modest, and the 40-plus-point threshold appears distant given typical release cycles and benchmark scaling. Anthropic holds the highest single-company odds at 9.5%, followed by OpenAI at 6.0%, consistent with its recent model cadence and competitive positioning. Key Q4 catalysts include anticipated frontier updates from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google, though historical Elo trajectories suggest these may fall short of the required leap before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакой ИИ компании впервые попадет в 1550 на арене чат-ботов в 2026 году?
Какой ИИ компании впервые попадет в 1550 на арене чат-ботов в 2026 году?
Ни одной в 2026 84%
Anthropic 10%
OpenAI 6.0%
Google 1.6%
$122,904 Объем
$122,904 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Ни одной в 2026
84%
Anthropic
10%
OpenAI
6%
2%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Ни одной в 2026 84%
Anthropic 10%
OpenAI 6.0%
Google 1.6%
$122,904 Объем
$122,904 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Ни одной в 2026
$26,000 Объем
84%
Anthropic
$17,412 Объем
10%
OpenAI
$14,673 Объем
6%
$11,499 Объем
2%
xAI
$9,350 Объем
1%
DeepSeek
$13,416 Объем
<1%
Alibaba
$11,378 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$9,474 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$9,703 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus assigns an 83.5% implied probability that no AI reaches 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026, reflecting the current frontier gap. As of early September, leading models sit in the 1490–1507 range, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants holding the top spots at roughly 1506. Incremental weekly gains remain modest, and the 40-plus-point threshold appears distant given typical release cycles and benchmark scaling. Anthropic holds the highest single-company odds at 9.5%, followed by OpenAI at 6.0%, consistent with its recent model cadence and competitive positioning. Key Q4 catalysts include anticipated frontier updates from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google, though historical Elo trajectories suggest these may fall short of the required leap before December 31.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Открытие рынка: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Объем
$122,904Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus assigns an 83.5% implied probability that no AI reaches 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026, reflecting the current frontier gap. As of early September, leading models sit in the 1490–1507 range, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants holding the top spots at roughly 1506. Incremental weekly gains remain modest, and the 40-plus-point threshold appears distant given typical release cycles and benchmark scaling. Anthropic holds the highest single-company odds at 9.5%, followed by OpenAI at 6.0%, consistent with its recent model cadence and competitive positioning. Key Q4 catalysts include anticipated frontier updates from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google, though historical Elo trajectories suggest these may fall short of the required leap before December 31.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Объем
$122,904Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns an 83.5% implied probability that no AI reaches 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026, reflecting the current frontier gap. As of early September, leading models sit in the 1490–1507 range, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants holding the top spots at roughly 1506. Incremental weekly gains remain modest, and the 40-plus-point threshold appears distant given typical release cycles and benchmark scaling. Anthropic holds the highest single-company odds at 9.5%, followed by OpenAI at 6.0%, consistent with its recent model cadence and competitive positioning. Key Q4 catalysts include anticipated frontier updates from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google, though historical Elo trajectories suggest these may fall short of the required leap before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы