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Климат и наука·климат

Когда в Тихом океане сформируется следующий ураган?

icon for Когда в Тихом океане сформируется следующий ураган?
Климат и наука·климат

Когда в Тихом океане сформируется следующий ураган?

13–16 августа 2026 года 40%

22 августа — 26 августа 2026 года 40%

17–21 августа 2026 года 39%

В августе 2026 года не образуется ни одного тихоокеанского урагана 36%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

13–16 августа 2026 года 40%

22 августа — 26 августа 2026 года 40%

17–21 августа 2026 года 39%

В августе 2026 года не образуется ни одного тихоокеанского урагана 36%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

13–16 августа 2026 года

$0 Объем

40%

17–21 августа 2026 года

$0 Объем

39%

22 августа — 26 августа 2026 года

$0 Объем

40%

27 августа — 31 августа 2026 года

$0 Объем

25%

В августе 2026 года не образуется ни одного тихоокеанского урагана

$0 Объем

36%

This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026. The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpacTrader sentiment reflects substantial uncertainty in the precise timing of the next Pacific tropical cyclone formation amid peak season conditions. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Pacific remain above the 26.5°C threshold needed for intensification, while steering patterns and wind shear levels fluctuate with the Madden-Julian Oscillation phase. Official National Hurricane Center and NOAA model guidance shows multiple disturbances with varying development probabilities over the next 7–10 days, producing closely clustered market-implied odds across mid-to-late August windows. Historical August formation rates and recent observational data on moisture availability further support this tight distribution, with resolution hinging on the next several official forecast updates.

This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".

A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.

The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.

The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac
Объем
$0
Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 11:19 AM ET

Источник определения исхода

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026. The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac
This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026. The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpacTrader sentiment reflects substantial uncertainty in the precise timing of the next Pacific tropical cyclone formation amid peak season conditions. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Pacific remain above the 26.5°C threshold needed for intensification, while steering patterns and wind shear levels fluctuate with the Madden-Julian Oscillation phase. Official National Hurricane Center and NOAA model guidance shows multiple disturbances with varying development probabilities over the next 7–10 days, producing closely clustered market-implied odds across mid-to-late August windows. Historical August formation rates and recent observational data on moisture availability further support this tight distribution, with resolution hinging on the next several official forecast updates.

This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".

A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.

The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.

The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac
Объем
$0
Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 11:19 AM ET

Источник определения исхода

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market resolves based on when the next Pacific hurricane forms, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Eastern Pacific basin or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) for the Central Pacific basin. The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). For this market, the "Pacific" comprises the Eastern Pacific basin and the Central Pacific basin as tracked by the NHC and CPHC. Systems classified as typhoons do not count. A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC or CPHC public advisory that classifies a system in these basins as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying advisory, not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026. The bracket "No Pacific hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC or CPHC advisory classifies any Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The resolution sources for this market are the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac

Связанные

icon for Образуется ли первый ураган в Атлантике между 22 и 26 августа 2026 года?

Образуется ли первый ураган в Атлантике между 22 и 26 августа 2026 года?

40%
Да
icon for Будет ли имя первого урагана в Атлантике в сезоне ураганов 2026 года Долли?

Будет ли имя первого урагана в Атлантике в сезоне ураганов 2026 года Долли?

37%
Да
icon for Будет ли ураган достигать суши в США в августе?

Будет ли ураган достигать суши в США в августе?

13%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Когда в Тихом океане сформируется следующий ураган?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 5 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «13–16 августа 2026 года» с 40%, за ним следует «22 августа — 26 августа 2026 года» с 40%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 40¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 40%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Когда в Тихом океане сформируется следующий ураган?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Aug 12, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Когда в Тихом океане сформируется следующий ураган?», просмотри 5 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Когда в Тихом океане сформируется следующий ураган?» — «13–16 августа 2026 года» с 40%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 40%. Следующий ближайший исход — «22 августа — 26 августа 2026 года» с 40%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Когда в Тихом океане сформируется следующий ураган?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.