Cristobal leads market-implied odds for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane at 42% because it is the next name after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed earlier in the season without reaching hurricane intensity. NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal outlook of 7–13 named storms and only 2–6 hurricanes for the June–November period, citing persistent Saharan dust, elevated wind shear, and limited African easterly wave activity that have kept the basin quiet into early August. Dolly and Edouard follow at 29.5% and 19.5% as subsequent names that could develop if the first systems in the coming weeks fail to intensify amid the current hostile environment. Peak-season climatology around mid-August and the next National Hurricane Center forecast updates will determine whether early-list names capture the first Category 1+ system or later ones advance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКак будет называться первый ураган в Атлантике во время сезона ураганов 2026 года?
Как будет называться первый ураган в Атлантике во время сезона ураганов 2026 года?
Эдуар 33%
Кристобаль 30%
Долли 11%
Паулетт 10%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 дек. 2026 г.
Кристобаль
42%
Долли
28%
Эдуар
19%
Фэй
5%
Гонсало
4%
Ханна
4%
Исайяс
5%
Джозефин
5%
Кайл
4%
Лия
4%
Марко
9%
Нана
8%
Омар
9%
Паулетт
10%
Рене
5%
Салли
3%
Тедди
5%
Вики
8%
Вилфред
4%
Другое
4%
Эдуар 33%
Кристобаль 30%
Долли 11%
Паулетт 10%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 дек. 2026 г.
Кристобаль
$162 Объем
42%
Долли
$86 Объем
28%
Эдуар
$222 Объем
19%
Фэй
$72 Объем
5%
Гонсало
$72 Объем
4%
Ханна
$73 Объем
4%
Исайяс
$88 Объем
5%
Джозефин
$55 Объем
5%
Кайл
$94 Объем
4%
Лия
$59 Объем
4%
Марко
$107 Объем
9%
Нана
$51 Объем
8%
Омар
$63 Объем
9%
Паулетт
$67 Объем
10%
Рене
$63 Объем
5%
Салли
$131 Объем
3%
Тедди
$63 Объем
5%
Вики
$90 Объем
8%
Вилфред
$118 Объем
4%
Другое
$63 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. Cristobal leads market-implied odds for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane at 42% because it is the next name after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed earlier in the season without reaching hurricane intensity. NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal outlook of 7–13 named storms and only 2–6 hurricanes for the June–November period, citing persistent Saharan dust, elevated wind shear, and limited African easterly wave activity that have kept the basin quiet into early August. Dolly and Edouard follow at 29.5% and 19.5% as subsequent names that could develop if the first systems in the coming weeks fail to intensify amid the current hostile environment. Peak-season climatology around mid-August and the next National Hurricane Center forecast updates will determine whether early-list names capture the first Category 1+ system or later ones advance.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Объем
$1,801Дата окончания
2 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. Cristobal leads market-implied odds for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane at 42% because it is the next name after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed earlier in the season without reaching hurricane intensity. NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal outlook of 7–13 named storms and only 2–6 hurricanes for the June–November period, citing persistent Saharan dust, elevated wind shear, and limited African easterly wave activity that have kept the basin quiet into early August. Dolly and Edouard follow at 29.5% and 19.5% as subsequent names that could develop if the first systems in the coming weeks fail to intensify amid the current hostile environment. Peak-season climatology around mid-August and the next National Hurricane Center forecast updates will determine whether early-list names capture the first Category 1+ system or later ones advance.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Объем
$1,801Дата окончания
2 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Cristobal leads market-implied odds for the first 2026 Atlantic hurricane at 42% because it is the next name after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed earlier in the season without reaching hurricane intensity. NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a below-normal outlook of 7–13 named storms and only 2–6 hurricanes for the June–November period, citing persistent Saharan dust, elevated wind shear, and limited African easterly wave activity that have kept the basin quiet into early August. Dolly and Edouard follow at 29.5% and 19.5% as subsequent names that could develop if the first systems in the coming weeks fail to intensify amid the current hostile environment. Peak-season climatology around mid-August and the next National Hurricane Center forecast updates will determine whether early-list names capture the first Category 1+ system or later ones advance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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