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icon for Какую интенсивность будет иметь тайфун «Дельфин» на выходе на берег в Японии?

Какую интенсивность будет иметь тайфун «Дельфин» на выходе на берег в Японии?

icon for Какую интенсивность будет иметь тайфун «Дельфин» на выходе на берег в Японии?

Какую интенсивность будет иметь тайфун «Дельфин» на выходе на берег в Японии?

Очень сильный тайфун 99.4%

Тайфун <1%

Сильный тропический шторм <1%

Тропический шторм <1%

Polymarket

$44,463 Объем

Очень сильный тайфун 99.4%

Тайфун <1%

Сильный тропический шторм <1%

Тропический шторм <1%

Polymarket

$44,463 Объем

Тропический шторм

$2,277 Объем

<1%

Сильный тропический шторм

$3,994 Объем

<1%

Тайфун

$14,646 Объем

<1%

Очень сильный тайфун

$9,560 Объем

99%

Сверхмощный тайфун

$6,582 Объем

<1%

This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded. This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall." This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Recent observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency and JTWC confirm Typhoon Dolphin approached and crossed Okinawa as a very strong typhoon with sustained winds near 144–185 km/h, consistent with the market's 99.4% implied probability for that outcome. Model consensus, including strong agreement across HAFS and other guidance on ocean heat content supporting maintenance of intensity through the Ryukyu Islands landfall window, underpins trader positioning, while earlier eyewall replacement cycles and reintensification to Category 4 levels established the baseline strength. Uncertainties remain around exact wind-speed thresholds at precise landfall timing or minor track shifts that could alter classification before rapid post-landfall weakening over land.

This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026.

Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.

Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported.

JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded.

This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall."

This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Объем
$44,463
Дата окончания
16 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 1:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded. This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall." This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded. This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall." This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Recent observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency and JTWC confirm Typhoon Dolphin approached and crossed Okinawa as a very strong typhoon with sustained winds near 144–185 km/h, consistent with the market's 99.4% implied probability for that outcome. Model consensus, including strong agreement across HAFS and other guidance on ocean heat content supporting maintenance of intensity through the Ryukyu Islands landfall window, underpins trader positioning, while earlier eyewall replacement cycles and reintensification to Category 4 levels established the baseline strength. Uncertainties remain around exact wind-speed thresholds at precise landfall timing or minor track shifts that could alter classification before rapid post-landfall weakening over land.

This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026.

Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.

Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported.

JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded.

This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall."

This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Объем
$44,463
Дата окончания
16 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 1:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market resolves to the intensity category corresponding to the maximum sustained wind speed (10-minute average) shown in the applicable JMA advisory as defined below. The outcome categories are: "Tropical Storm" (34–47 kt), "Severe Tropical Storm" (48–63 kt), "Typhoon" (64–84 kt), "Very Strong Typhoon" (85–104 kt), and "Violent Typhoon" (105+ kt). Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The applicable advisory is selected as follows: if a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, that advisory's wind speed resolves the market; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Once the applicable advisory is identified, its intensity fixes the outcome; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. Archival evidence of JMA advisory data is maintained by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) at its Typhoon Images and Charts page for Typhoon 202613 (DOLPHIN). In the event of a resolution dispute, the intensity value recorded by Digital Typhoon for the applicable advisory fix shall be treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market still resolves, with intensity taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Only the first qualifying landfall on Japanese territory resolves the market; subsequent landfalls are disregarded. This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The applicable JMA advisory (as selected above) must show maximum sustained winds of 34 knots or higher, classifying Dolphin as a tropical storm or above. If the applicable advisory classifies the system as a tropical depression (below 34 kt), extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market resolves to "No Qualifying Landfall." This market resolves "No Qualifying Landfall" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, if the applicable advisory at the time of crossing shows winds below 34 knots, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.

Связанные

icon for Сформирует ли супертайфун Дельфин выход на сушу при силе категории 4 или выше?

Сформирует ли супертайфун Дельфин выход на сушу при силе категории 4 или выше?

6%
Да
icon for Достанет ли супертайфун Дельфин до Китая?

Достанет ли супертайфун Дельфин до Китая?

99%
Да
icon for Ровно 5 тропических циклонов обрушатся на Китай в 2026 году?

Ровно 5 тропических циклонов обрушатся на Китай в 2026 году?

46%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Какую интенсивность будет иметь тайфун «Дельфин» на выходе на берег в Японии?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 6 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Очень сильный тайфун» с 99%, за ним следует «Тропический шторм» с 0%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 99¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 99%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Какую интенсивность будет иметь тайфун «Дельфин» на выходе на берег в Японии?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $44.5K с момента запуска рынка Aug 4, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Какую интенсивность будет иметь тайфун «Дельфин» на выходе на берег в Японии?», просмотри 6 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Какую интенсивность будет иметь тайфун «Дельфин» на выходе на берег в Японии?» — «Очень сильный тайфун» с 99%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 99%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Тропический шторм» с 0%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Какую интенсивность будет иметь тайфун «Дельфин» на выходе на берег в Японии?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.