Peru's interim and subsequent administrations have driven the 86% trader consensus against a 2026 pardon for former President Pedro Castillo. In late July 2026 the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights, along with the Presidential Pardons Commission, rejected his formal request as inadmissible on both ordinary and humanitarian grounds. Justice Minister statements in August under the Keiko Fujimori administration labeled any commutation “impossible” in the current scenario and dismissed related protests as political pressure. Castillo’s November 2025 conviction and 11.5-year sentence for rebellion tied to the 2022 self-coup remain in force, with the transitional government emphasizing legal finality ahead of scheduled elections. These official actions and the absence of executive signals favoring clemency anchor the current implied probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
14% вероятность
$43,022 Объем
$43,022 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
14% вероятность
$43,022 Объем
$43,022 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Peru's interim and subsequent administrations have driven the 86% trader consensus against a 2026 pardon for former President Pedro Castillo. In late July 2026 the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights, along with the Presidential Pardons Commission, rejected his formal request as inadmissible on both ordinary and humanitarian grounds. Justice Minister statements in August under the Keiko Fujimori administration labeled any commutation “impossible” in the current scenario and dismissed related protests as political pressure. Castillo’s November 2025 conviction and 11.5-year sentence for rebellion tied to the 2022 self-coup remain in force, with the transitional government emphasizing legal finality ahead of scheduled elections. These official actions and the absence of executive signals favoring clemency anchor the current implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Объем
$43,022Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Peru's interim and subsequent administrations have driven the 86% trader consensus against a 2026 pardon for former President Pedro Castillo. In late July 2026 the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights, along with the Presidential Pardons Commission, rejected his formal request as inadmissible on both ordinary and humanitarian grounds. Justice Minister statements in August under the Keiko Fujimori administration labeled any commutation “impossible” in the current scenario and dismissed related protests as political pressure. Castillo’s November 2025 conviction and 11.5-year sentence for rebellion tied to the 2022 self-coup remain in force, with the transitional government emphasizing legal finality ahead of scheduled elections. These official actions and the absence of executive signals favoring clemency anchor the current implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$43,022Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Peru's interim and subsequent administrations have driven the 86% trader consensus against a 2026 pardon for former President Pedro Castillo. In late July 2026 the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights, along with the Presidential Pardons Commission, rejected his formal request as inadmissible on both ordinary and humanitarian grounds. Justice Minister statements in August under the Keiko Fujimori administration labeled any commutation “impossible” in the current scenario and dismissed related protests as political pressure. Castillo’s November 2025 conviction and 11.5-year sentence for rebellion tied to the 2022 self-coup remain in force, with the transitional government emphasizing legal finality ahead of scheduled elections. These official actions and the absence of executive signals favoring clemency anchor the current implied probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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