Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Oregon Senate race after securing his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary and facing Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith, who won a fragmented GOP primary with under 30 percent. Oregon's strong Democratic lean—evident in recent presidential results—and Merkley's long incumbency since 2009 create structural advantages that align with trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Republicans have not won a Senate seat in the state since 2002. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though current conditions point to limited volatility before the November general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Сенат штата Орегон
Победитель выборов в Сенат штата Орегон
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ
97%
Республиканец
3%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ
$3,632 Объем
97%
Республиканец
$2,946 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Oregon Senate race after securing his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary and facing Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith, who won a fragmented GOP primary with under 30 percent. Oregon's strong Democratic lean—evident in recent presidential results—and Merkley's long incumbency since 2009 create structural advantages that align with trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Republicans have not won a Senate seat in the state since 2002. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though current conditions point to limited volatility before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Объем
$6,578Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Oregon Senate race after securing his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary and facing Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith, who won a fragmented GOP primary with under 30 percent. Oregon's strong Democratic lean—evident in recent presidential results—and Merkley's long incumbency since 2009 create structural advantages that align with trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Republicans have not won a Senate seat in the state since 2002. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though current conditions point to limited volatility before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$6,578Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Oregon Senate race after securing his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary and facing Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith, who won a fragmented GOP primary with under 30 percent. Oregon's strong Democratic lean—evident in recent presidential results—and Merkley's long incumbency since 2009 create structural advantages that align with trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Republicans have not won a Senate seat in the state since 2002. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though current conditions point to limited volatility before the November general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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