Nawaf Salam has held Lebanon’s premiership since February 2025 under President Joseph Aoun, securing a strong parliamentary majority of 84–9 against Hezbollah-backed alternatives and forming a 24-minister cabinet focused on reforms and sovereignty. Through mid-2026, his government has advanced U.S.-backed ceasefire frameworks, army deployments in the south, and diplomatic pushes for full Israeli withdrawal alongside reconstruction and state authority under the Taif Accord. Recent August statements and meetings with U.S. and Arab officials underscore continuity in these efforts, with no reported confidence votes, major coalition fractures, or resignation pressures in the past month. Traders therefore assign an 88.5% implied probability that Salam remains in office through year-end, reflecting the absence of near-term political triggers that have historically shortened Lebanese premierships.