**Trader consensus strongly favors 25°C as the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 5, 2026 (92% implied probability), consistent with official and model-derived forecasts showing an overnight minimum near that level.** Multiple sources, including GFS-based outlooks and station-specific guidance, indicate temperatures falling to approximately 24–26°C (75–79°F) in the pre-dawn hours under stable high-pressure conditions, light westerly to northwesterly winds, and mostly clear skies typical of early September in the eastern Mediterranean. This aligns with climatological norms for the date, where overnight lows commonly range from 22–26°C, and current model consensus shows limited cooling due to residual daytime heat retention and minimal cloud cover or moisture. The dominant positioning reflects real-time aggregation of skin-in-the-game assessments of these conditions. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted increase in cloud cover, localized sea-breeze effects, or a sharper-than-expected drop in dew points that models have not captured, potentially pushing the minimum to 24°C or below; however, the narrow spread of forecasts and absence of dynamic weather systems make such shifts unlikely before resolution.