**Forecast models and official guidance from Chinese meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature in Shenzhen on September 6 near 26°C, with trader-implied probabilities clustered around 25–27°C.** Persistent cloud cover and periods of moderate rain associated with a passing weather system are limiting overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows from falling below the mid-20s Celsius. Recent model consensus, including runs from the past 24–48 hours, shows daytime highs near 30–31°C under mostly cloudy skies, with humidity remaining elevated and light winds preventing significant temperature drops after sunset. This setup aligns with typical early-September subtropical conditions in the Pearl River Delta, where seasonal moisture and cloudiness moderate diurnal ranges compared to clearer periods. Small differences among the leading outcomes hinge on the exact timing and intensity of rainfall overnight, as heavier or more prolonged precipitation could nudge the minimum slightly lower while any brief clearing could allow it to reach 27°C. Updated local observations and short-range forecasts expected later today will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.