**Trader consensus heavily favors under five posts from Khamenei's official channels in the August 25–September 1 window (76.5% on <5, 21% on 5-9).** This pricing reflects the established pattern of infrequent direct activity from the Leader of the Islamic Revolution's verified accounts, including @MKhamenei_ir and legacy profiles now focused on statements and commemorations. Primary drivers include Mojtaba Khamenei's limited public visibility since assuming the role following his father's assassination earlier in 2026, with communications often limited to occasional messages on national or religious occasions rather than regular posting. Recent activity on affiliated accounts has centered on 40th-day memorials and routine religious content in mid-to-late August, without indications of accelerated output ahead of the target period. No scheduled summits, votes, or major diplomatic announcements fall squarely within the seven-day resolution window that would typically trigger higher volume. The structure of Iranian leadership communications—primarily through formal statements, Friday sermons, or curated media releases rather than daily social media engagement—further anchors expectations of subdued activity. Historical base rates for these accounts show sparse posting outside acute crises or holidays, supporting the current implied probability distribution. Late developments such as health updates, regional security shifts, or official commemorations could still alter the outcome, though none are confirmed for the immediate timeframe.