**Ongoing US-Iran negotiations under the June 2026 Islamabad MoU have deferred core disputes over uranium enrichment without securing Iran's commitment to end the activity.** The interim accord requires down-blending of existing stockpiles under IAEA supervision as a minimum step and calls for further talks on enrichment within a 60-day window, but Iran has publicly reaffirmed its right to enrichment for civilian needs while resisting immediate inspections at damaged sites. US demands for a final deal barring all enrichment remain unmet amid persistent disagreements on verification access and sanctions relief timelines. As of late August 2026, no breakthrough has produced a binding agreement to halt enrichment by year-end, consistent with Iran's longstanding positions and the technical and political hurdles to verifiable limits. Trader consensus reflects these unresolved gaps and the low likelihood of rapid capitulation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
14% вероятность
$1,671,213 Объем
$1,671,213 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
14% вероятность
$1,671,213 Объем
$1,671,213 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Ongoing US-Iran negotiations under the June 2026 Islamabad MoU have deferred core disputes over uranium enrichment without securing Iran's commitment to end the activity.** The interim accord requires down-blending of existing stockpiles under IAEA supervision as a minimum step and calls for further talks on enrichment within a 60-day window, but Iran has publicly reaffirmed its right to enrichment for civilian needs while resisting immediate inspections at damaged sites. US demands for a final deal barring all enrichment remain unmet amid persistent disagreements on verification access and sanctions relief timelines. As of late August 2026, no breakthrough has produced a binding agreement to halt enrichment by year-end, consistent with Iran's longstanding positions and the technical and political hurdles to verifiable limits. Trader consensus reflects these unresolved gaps and the low likelihood of rapid capitulation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Объем
$1,671,213Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Ongoing US-Iran negotiations under the June 2026 Islamabad MoU have deferred core disputes over uranium enrichment without securing Iran's commitment to end the activity.** The interim accord requires down-blending of existing stockpiles under IAEA supervision as a minimum step and calls for further talks on enrichment within a 60-day window, but Iran has publicly reaffirmed its right to enrichment for civilian needs while resisting immediate inspections at damaged sites. US demands for a final deal barring all enrichment remain unmet amid persistent disagreements on verification access and sanctions relief timelines. As of late August 2026, no breakthrough has produced a binding agreement to halt enrichment by year-end, consistent with Iran's longstanding positions and the technical and political hurdles to verifiable limits. Trader consensus reflects these unresolved gaps and the low likelihood of rapid capitulation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,671,213Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Iran negotiations under the June 2026 Islamabad MoU have deferred core disputes over uranium enrichment without securing Iran's commitment to end the activity.** The interim accord requires down-blending of existing stockpiles under IAEA supervision as a minimum step and calls for further talks on enrichment within a 60-day window, but Iran has publicly reaffirmed its right to enrichment for civilian needs while resisting immediate inspections at damaged sites. US demands for a final deal barring all enrichment remain unmet amid persistent disagreements on verification access and sanctions relief timelines. As of late August 2026, no breakthrough has produced a binding agreement to halt enrichment by year-end, consistent with Iran's longstanding positions and the technical and political hurdles to verifiable limits. Trader consensus reflects these unresolved gaps and the low likelihood of rapid capitulation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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