Traders favor a 13°C high for Wellington on August 2 at 55.5% implied probability, followed by 12°C at 32%, reflecting model consensus for near-average winter conditions in the region. Long-term August maxima average around 12–13°C, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest likelihood to near-average temperatures through the period. Short-range forecasts from agencies such as MetService indicate southerly flow and limited diurnal warming that should keep the daily peak close to these values, with only modest upside risk if a transient ridge develops. Recent days have shown highs fluctuating between 10–14°C without extremes, reinforcing trader positioning around the historical baseline rather than significant deviations. Updated model runs and official observations on August 2 will resolve the market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Веллингтоне 2 августа?
13°C 56%
12°C 32%
14°C 10%
11°C 4%
$15,210 Объем
$15,210 Объем
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
4%
12°C
32%
13°C
56%
14°C
10%
15°C
3%
16°C or higher
<1%
13°C 56%
12°C 32%
14°C 10%
11°C 4%
$15,210 Объем
$15,210 Объем
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
4%
12°C
32%
13°C
56%
14°C
10%
15°C
3%
16°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders favor a 13°C high for Wellington on August 2 at 55.5% implied probability, followed by 12°C at 32%, reflecting model consensus for near-average winter conditions in the region. Long-term August maxima average around 12–13°C, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest likelihood to near-average temperatures through the period. Short-range forecasts from agencies such as MetService indicate southerly flow and limited diurnal warming that should keep the daily peak close to these values, with only modest upside risk if a transient ridge develops. Recent days have shown highs fluctuating between 10–14°C without extremes, reinforcing trader positioning around the historical baseline rather than significant deviations. Updated model runs and official observations on August 2 will resolve the market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено


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