The near-100% market consensus on a 25°C high for Buenos Aires on July 31 reflects the confirmed observational record from official monitoring stations, which captured that exact maximum under the prevailing winter synoptic pattern. Mid-latitude high pressure and northerly flow allowed a brief warm advection event that pushed afternoon readings well above the July climatological average of 14–16°C, with multiple hourly reports aligning on the peak. Model guidance issued days earlier had already converged on this warmer-than-normal scenario, reducing forecast uncertainty and enabling traders to price the outcome with high confidence once the day concluded. While post-event quality control or station-specific adjustments could theoretically shift the final figure, such revisions are rare for established Argentine meteorological networks and would need to exceed typical error margins to alter resolution.