**Persistent above-normal summer temperatures across Japan, driven by El Niño conditions and JMA seasonal outlooks, position 34°C as the modal outcome for Tokyo’s August 2 high.** Long-range guidance from sources like AccuWeather shows daily August maxima commonly spanning 28.5–36.4°C, with early-month peaks frequently reaching the mid-30s amid high humidity. Recent late-July heatwave conditions, including multiple days above 35°C, have reinforced trader expectations for continued elevated readings into early August, though possible cloud cover or showers noted in extended forecasts could modestly cap the daily maximum. Historical climatology places typical early-August highs near 31–32°C, making the 34–35°C cluster the current market consensus while leaving room for model updates closer to the date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Токио 2 августа?
34°C 40%
35°C 25%
33°C 24%
36°C 8%
$12,165 Объем
$12,165 Объем
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
2%
32°C
5%
33°C
24%
34°C
40%
35°C
25%
36°C
8%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
34°C 40%
35°C 25%
33°C 24%
36°C 8%
$12,165 Объем
$12,165 Объем
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
2%
32°C
5%
33°C
24%
34°C
40%
35°C
25%
36°C
8%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent above-normal summer temperatures across Japan, driven by El Niño conditions and JMA seasonal outlooks, position 34°C as the modal outcome for Tokyo’s August 2 high.** Long-range guidance from sources like AccuWeather shows daily August maxima commonly spanning 28.5–36.4°C, with early-month peaks frequently reaching the mid-30s amid high humidity. Recent late-July heatwave conditions, including multiple days above 35°C, have reinforced trader expectations for continued elevated readings into early August, though possible cloud cover or showers noted in extended forecasts could modestly cap the daily maximum. Historical climatology places typical early-August highs near 31–32°C, making the 34–35°C cluster the current market consensus while leaving room for model updates closer to the date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено


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