**Forecast models from Environment Canada and supporting global guidance center the September 6 high in Toronto near 23°C under partly cloudy skies with light easterly flow and low precipitation chances.** This places the outcome squarely at the seasonal average high of ~23.8°C, supporting the dominant 51.5% market-implied probability. Primary drivers include stable high-pressure influence limiting both daytime heating and cooling, with no strong warm or cold advection in the short-term pattern. Model consensus shows minimal spread, keeping the bulk of probability between 22–24°C (combined ~92.5% implied odds), consistent with typical early-September variability and current observational trends. Recent data releases have reinforced this positioning without notable shifts in the past 24–48 hours, as GFS and regional runs align closely on the 23°C peak. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow uncertainty band around official guidance rather than outlier scenarios, with lower probabilities assigned to 21°C or 25°C+ reflecting the low likelihood of significant deviations this close to the event.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Торонто 6 сентября?
Самая высокая температура в Торонто 6 сентября?
23°C 51%
24°C 22%
22°C 21%
21°C 4%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 сент. 2026 г.
19°C или ниже
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
4%
22°C
21%
23°C
51%
24°C
22%
25°C
4%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C или выше
<1%
23°C 51%
24°C 22%
22°C 21%
21°C 4%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 сент. 2026 г.
19°C или ниже
$56 Объем
1%
20°C
$120 Объем
2%
21°C
$852 Объем
4%
22°C
$432 Объем
21%
23°C
$881 Объем
51%
24°C
$686 Объем
22%
25°C
$124 Объем
4%
26°C
$57 Объем
2%
27°C
$263 Объем
1%
28°C
$1,415 Объем
<1%
29°C или выше
$305 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from Environment Canada and supporting global guidance center the September 6 high in Toronto near 23°C under partly cloudy skies with light easterly flow and low precipitation chances.** This places the outcome squarely at the seasonal average high of ~23.8°C, supporting the dominant 51.5% market-implied probability.
Primary drivers include stable high-pressure influence limiting both daytime heating and cooling, with no strong warm or cold advection in the short-term pattern. Model consensus shows minimal spread, keeping the bulk of probability between 22–24°C (combined ~92.5% implied odds), consistent with typical early-September variability and current observational trends.
Recent data releases have reinforced this positioning without notable shifts in the past 24–48 hours, as GFS and regional runs align closely on the 23°C peak. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow uncertainty band around official guidance rather than outlier scenarios, with lower probabilities assigned to 21°C or 25°C+ reflecting the low likelihood of significant deviations this close to the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 4, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Объем
$5,191Дата окончания
6 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 4, 2026, 8:55 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from Environment Canada and supporting global guidance center the September 6 high in Toronto near 23°C under partly cloudy skies with light easterly flow and low precipitation chances.** This places the outcome squarely at the seasonal average high of ~23.8°C, supporting the dominant 51.5% market-implied probability.
Primary drivers include stable high-pressure influence limiting both daytime heating and cooling, with no strong warm or cold advection in the short-term pattern. Model consensus shows minimal spread, keeping the bulk of probability between 22–24°C (combined ~92.5% implied odds), consistent with typical early-September variability and current observational trends.
Recent data releases have reinforced this positioning without notable shifts in the past 24–48 hours, as GFS and regional runs align closely on the 23°C peak. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow uncertainty band around official guidance rather than outlier scenarios, with lower probabilities assigned to 21°C or 25°C+ reflecting the low likelihood of significant deviations this close to the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$5,191Дата окончания
6 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 4, 2026, 8:55 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from Environment Canada and supporting global guidance center the September 6 high in Toronto near 23°C under partly cloudy skies with light easterly flow and low precipitation chances.** This places the outcome squarely at the seasonal average high of ~23.8°C, supporting the dominant 51.5% market-implied probability. Primary drivers include stable high-pressure influence limiting both daytime heating and cooling, with no strong warm or cold advection in the short-term pattern. Model consensus shows minimal spread, keeping the bulk of probability between 22–24°C (combined ~92.5% implied odds), consistent with typical early-September variability and current observational trends. Recent data releases have reinforced this positioning without notable shifts in the past 24–48 hours, as GFS and regional runs align closely on the 23°C peak. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow uncertainty band around official guidance rather than outlier scenarios, with lower probabilities assigned to 21°C or 25°C+ reflecting the low likelihood of significant deviations this close to the event.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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