Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a highest temperature in Chengdu on September 14 most likely between 24–26°C, driven by increasing cloud cover, light southerly winds, and scattered light rain or drizzle that will limit daytime heating. Current conditions show mild temperatures near 24°C with high humidity around 70–80%, consistent with the transitional September monsoon pattern in the Sichuan Basin. Ensemble guidance shows limited model spread, with some runs favoring 25°C under partly cloudy skies while others cap at 24°C due to earlier precipitation onset. This scientific uncertainty underpins the closely matched market-implied odds favoring 24–26°C outcomes, while probabilities drop sharply outside that range given the absence of strong high-pressure ridging or clear-sky conditions that could push readings to 27°C or higher.