Trader consensus around 11–12°C for Buenos Aires’ August 13 daily maximum reflects the latest model runs showing persistent overcast skies, light southeasterly flow, and a weak frontal boundary limiting daytime heating. Current forecasts from sources such as BBC Weather and timeanddate indicate highs near 11–12°C with lows in the 8°C range, consistent with mid-winter climatology yet tempered by reduced insolation. Ensemble spread remains modest, producing the near-even split between those two outcomes, while probabilities drop sharply above 13°C or below 10°C. The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional’s next updated guidance and real-time station observations on the 13th will provide the decisive data for market resolution.