**xAI’s rapid iteration on the Grok 4 series, combined with Elon Musk’s recent timeline statements, drives trader sentiment toward a July 31 release for Grok 4.4.** Grok 4 launched in July 2025, followed by 4.1 in November 2025 and the current 4.3 (1M-context agentic model with strong tool-calling benchmarks) in early May 2026. A May 17 Musk post noted the 1.5T V9 foundation model had finished training, with supplemental data, SFT, and RL expected to take 3–4 weeks—pointing to a mid-to-late June window that aligns with earlier April reports of a ~1T-parameter Grok 4.4 arriving in weeks. xAI continues scaling via the Colossus cluster while facing competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google releases. The market-implied odds (heavily favoring July 31 over nearer dates) reflect both xAI’s history of shipping frontier models on aggressive but sometimes sliding schedules and the absence of an official 4.4 announcement as of mid-June. Key near-term catalysts include any new Musk updates on training progress or API availability, which could quickly shift probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоGrok 4.4 released by...?
Grok 4.4 released by...?
$21,598 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
June 15
1%
June 30
7%
31 июля
70%
$21,598 Объем
June 15
$6,955 Объем
1%
June 30
$12,578 Объем
7%
31 июля
$737 Объем
70%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**xAI’s rapid iteration on the Grok 4 series, combined with Elon Musk’s recent timeline statements, drives trader sentiment toward a July 31 release for Grok 4.4.**
Grok 4 launched in July 2025, followed by 4.1 in November 2025 and the current 4.3 (1M-context agentic model with strong tool-calling benchmarks) in early May 2026. A May 17 Musk post noted the 1.5T V9 foundation model had finished training, with supplemental data, SFT, and RL expected to take 3–4 weeks—pointing to a mid-to-late June window that aligns with earlier April reports of a ~1T-parameter Grok 4.4 arriving in weeks.
xAI continues scaling via the Colossus cluster while facing competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google releases. The market-implied odds (heavily favoring July 31 over nearer dates) reflect both xAI’s history of shipping frontier models on aggressive but sometimes sliding schedules and the absence of an official 4.4 announcement as of mid-June. Key near-term catalysts include any new Musk updates on training progress or API availability, which could quickly shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Объем
$21,598Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**xAI’s rapid iteration on the Grok 4 series, combined with Elon Musk’s recent timeline statements, drives trader sentiment toward a July 31 release for Grok 4.4.**
Grok 4 launched in July 2025, followed by 4.1 in November 2025 and the current 4.3 (1M-context agentic model with strong tool-calling benchmarks) in early May 2026. A May 17 Musk post noted the 1.5T V9 foundation model had finished training, with supplemental data, SFT, and RL expected to take 3–4 weeks—pointing to a mid-to-late June window that aligns with earlier April reports of a ~1T-parameter Grok 4.4 arriving in weeks.
xAI continues scaling via the Colossus cluster while facing competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google releases. The market-implied odds (heavily favoring July 31 over nearer dates) reflect both xAI’s history of shipping frontier models on aggressive but sometimes sliding schedules and the absence of an official 4.4 announcement as of mid-June. Key near-term catalysts include any new Musk updates on training progress or API availability, which could quickly shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$21,598Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**xAI’s rapid iteration on the Grok 4 series, combined with Elon Musk’s recent timeline statements, drives trader sentiment toward a July 31 release for Grok 4.4.** Grok 4 launched in July 2025, followed by 4.1 in November 2025 and the current 4.3 (1M-context agentic model with strong tool-calling benchmarks) in early May 2026. A May 17 Musk post noted the 1.5T V9 foundation model had finished training, with supplemental data, SFT, and RL expected to take 3–4 weeks—pointing to a mid-to-late June window that aligns with earlier April reports of a ~1T-parameter Grok 4.4 arriving in weeks. xAI continues scaling via the Colossus cluster while facing competitive pressure from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google releases. The market-implied odds (heavily favoring July 31 over nearer dates) reflect both xAI’s history of shipping frontier models on aggressive but sometimes sliding schedules and the absence of an official 4.4 announcement as of mid-June. Key near-term catalysts include any new Musk updates on training progress or API availability, which could quickly shift probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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